The spatially explicit assessment of land use and land-use change patterns can identify critical areas and provide insights to improve land management policies and associated decisions. This study mapped the land uses and land-use changes in Lithuanian municipalities since 1971. Additionally, an analysis was conducted of three shorter periods, corresponding to major national land-use policy epochs. Data on land uses, available from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected on an annual basis with the primary objective of conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting and reporting for the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, were explored. The overall trend in Lithuania during the last five decades has been an increase in the area of forest and built-up land and decrease in the area of producing land, meadow/pasture, wetlands, and other land uses. Nevertheless, the development trends for the proportions of producing land and meadow/pasture changed trajectories several times, and the breakpoints were linked with important dates in Lithuanian history and associated with the reorganization of land management and land-use relations. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin Local Moran’s I were used to check for global and local patterns in the distribution of land use in Lithuanian municipalities. The proportions of producing land and pasture/meadow remained spatially autocorrelated during the whole period analysed. Local spatial clusters and outliers were identified for all land-use types used in GHG inventories in the LULUCF sector at all the time points analysed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to explain the land-use change trends during several historical periods due to differing land management policies, utilizing data from freely available databases as the regressors. The percentage of variance explained by the models ranged from 37 to 65, depending on the land-use type and the period in question.

Abstract. Drained organic forest soils in boreal and temperate climate zones are believed to be significant sources of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), but the annual fluxes are still highly uncertain. Drained organic soils exemplify systems where many studies are still carried out with relatively small resources, several methodologies and manually operated systems, which further involve different options for the detailed design of the measurement and data analysis protocols for deriving the annual flux. It would be beneficial to set certain guidelines for how to measure and report the data, so that data from individual studies could also be used in synthesis work based on data collation and modelling. Such synthesis work is necessary for deciphering general patterns and trends related to, e.g., site types, climate, and management, and the development of corresponding emission factors, i.e. estimates of the net annual soil GHG emission and removal, which can be used in GHG inventories. Development of specific emission factors also sets prerequisites for the background or environmental data to be reported in individual studies. We argue that wide applicability greatly increases the value of individual studies. An overall objective of this paper is to support future monitoring campaigns in obtaining high-value data. We analysed peer-reviewed publications presenting CO2, CH4 and N2O flux data for drained organic forest soils in boreal and temperate climate zones, focusing on data that have been used, or have the potential to be used, for estimating net annual soil GHG emissions and removals. We evaluated the methods used in data collection and identified major gaps in background or environmental data. Based on these, we formulated recommendations for future research.

Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential.

Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays an important role in climate change mitigation as long-term goal of carbon neutral economy depends on sector’s ability to sequestrate carbon in biomass and soil. With reference to the Paris Agreement, accounting rules for LULUCF sector have been heavily discussed in European Union (EU), seeking of trustworthy inclusion of the sector in the assessment of Union’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze LULUCF sector’s contribution to climate change mitigation with different accounting rules applied in EU countries and particularly in Lithuania. On EU level LULUCF sector’s absorption in 2019 has equaled around –234 million t CO2 eq. (6% of total EU GHG emissions), in some countries reaching more than a half of national emissions. However, different accounting rules applied may provide significantly different number of potential credits for separate EU countries, creating some “winners” and “losers” situation. Though inclusion of LULUCF sector into GHG’s emissions reduction targets remains discussible, some stability in rules is one of the main preconditions for proper LULUCF sector management decisions.