The purpose of the article is to develop a new approach to strategic management of sustainable development of agro-industrial complex under conditions of economic integration and to solve the problem of preservation of national agro-industrial complex under the condition of globalizing and integrative processes which take place in the global economy. In order to achieve this goal, the work uses methods of modeling, forecasting, scenario analysis, problem analysis, synthesis, deduction & induction, and conceptual provisions of systemic approach. Methodology of the research is based on the principles of integrity and differences, positive and normative economic analysis. The authors develop innovational approach to strategic management of sustainable development of agroindustrial complex under the conditions of economic integration and analyze possible scenarios of development of agro-industrial complex under the conditions of economic integration during use of various approaches to management. As a result of the research, the authors come to the conclusion that only independent development of national enterprises of agro-industrial complex can provide its sustainable development. Excessive state support can ruin stimuli for implementation of innovations, despite a lot of financial and investment resources for that. Without state regulation, national enterprises of this complex will not be able to compete with foreign rivals, which causes necessity for use of innovational approach to strategic management of sustainable development of agro-industrial complex under economic integration.
Аннотация. Начало XXI века ознаменовано появлением в нашей стране национальных проектов, которые в точности повторяют частные интегральные показатели, применяемые ООН при вы-числении индекса развития человеческого капитала с 1996 года. Национальный проект «Здраво-охранение» направлен на увеличение ожидаемой продолжительности жизни (ОПЖ), «Образова-ние» -на расширение доступности населения к получению знаний, «Удвоение ВВП» -на рост доходов. Придавая одинаковое значение каждому из перечисленных показателей, автор публи-кации поставил перед собой задачу рассмотреть экономическую эффективность расходования средств бюджетов всех уровней, направляемых на улучшение здоровья нации. В качестве основной гипотезы о характере зависимости между ОПЖ (Н) и расходами бюджета на здравоохранение (G) принято предположение о пропорциональной зависимости; рассчитанные коэффициенты корре-ляции (коэффициент Пирсона, r) зависимости Н = f(G) для всех субъектов РФ за период 2003-2013 годов (0,49 < r < 0,97) подтвердили существование связи. В качестве количественного значения, показывающего экономическую эффективность превращения расходов бюджета в увеличение продолжительности жизни, автором предложено применять тангенс угла наклона прямой Н = f(G) к оси абсцисс. Физический смысл этого показателя состоит в том, что показывает достигнутый прирост продолжительности жизни (перемещение по оси ординат) в зависимости от изменения расходов бюджета на здравоохранение (заданного перемещения по оси абсцисс). Предлагаемый критерий для оценки социально-экономической эффективности государственных инвестиций в отечественное здравоохранение обеспечивает наиболее объективную и однозначную оценку, которая выполняется стандартными методами математической статистики, обеспечивающими высокую достоверность вычислений. Показатель скорости увеличения ОПЖ в зависимости от
Abstract. In the work of the object of study, organizational and technological reliability (OTR) is presented as the ability of the construction process to maintain a specified (design) value of the intensity of construction and installation works (CIW). The subject of the study is the scope of OTR. The use of the indicator "probability of achievement of the set values of intensity of CIW" for planning of growth of productivity of work is capable to significantly increase reliability of the planned development, including taking into account the last achievements of science and technology. The aim of this work is to consider options for modifying the intensity of CIW based on the specific OTR. To achieve the goal, we tackled the problem of assessing the influence of methods of curve plotting cumulative probabilities for the rate of change of intensity of construction, and also showed alternative plans for the growth of labor productivity taking into account OTR. As a result of the study, the author comes to the conclusion about the identity of the probability of achieving a given level of intensity of production of CIW and the duration of construction of buildings and structures. Examples of alternative planning of productivity growth taking into account OTR are considered. The influence of the construction method of the curve of accumulated probability on the growth rate of intensity of production of CIW is proved.
The article proposes the solution of the topical issues that arise in the construction of buildings and structures, among them are: ensuring high reliability in calculating the duration of work in construction projects, determining the minimum boundary of the actual intensity of work in the construction of building structures. Objective: to offer a simple option for assessing the value of the reliability of the construction process. Within the framework of the research, the following tasks were solved: the typification of construction processes according to the degree of mechanization was carried out, a simple method of probability theory was proposed to determine the reliability value. Methods of forming the general set of initial values suggest using observation and timing. Processing of statistical values was performed on the model of the accumulated probability curve. As a result of the research, the construction processes are considered as fully mechanized, non-mechanized (manual) and processes in which the machines and workers are jointly occupied. A practical example of obtaining the values of productivity from a given value of reliability on the curve of accumulated probabilities is given. The conclusion is made about the advantages of the described approach, which consist in the simplicity and low laboriousness of constructing a model, as well as performing calculations.
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