Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.

Abstract:Mean snow depth time-series for February over northern Eurasia (incl. Norway, Finland and the former USSR), interpolated into 5 × 5°grid points, are studied using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, five statistically significant rotated PCs are correlated to Northern Hemisphere (NH) teleconnection patterns at the 700 hPa height: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Polar-Eurasia (Pol), Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), and Scandinavia (Scand). The impact of the NH circulation modes on snow depth variations is evaluated using the multiple stepwise backward regression (MSBR).Analyses of the snow depth PCs indicate that within the northern Eurasia territory, there are several regions with snow accumulation, respondent to certain circulation modes. PC1 describes low-frequency snow depth variation to the north from 55 to 60°N between the White Sea and the Lena river basin, and is positively correlated with NAO and negatively -with Scand. MSBR shows that in 1951-1974 the leading role in snow depth variability belongs to Scand. After 1975, Scand has passed over the leading role to NAO. Scand and NAO are also responsible for the surface air temperature changes over the northern Eurasia. Snow depth PC1 and wintertime temperature are closely related to each other. PC2 describes quasi-decadal snow depth variability over eastern Europe and is negatively correlated with NAO. For the Baltic and White Sea coasts, Fennoscandia, and the center of the East European plain, decrease of snow accumulation, related to a positive NAO phase, seems to be caused by mild winters. For the southwestern and central regions of eastern Europe, negative snow depth anomalies could also be caused by decrease of precipitation associated with the eastward shift of cyclone tracks related to the positive NAO phase. Two regions, where snow depth variations are described by PC1 and PC2, respectively, reveal the border between the opposite recent tendencies of snow accumulation.

No abstract

No abstract

Statistical correlations between seasonal air temperatures and snow depths and active layer depths and permafrost temperatures were analysed for tundra (Marre‐Salle) and northern taiga (Nadym) sites in Western Siberia. Interannual variations in active layer depth in the tundra zone correlated with the average air temperature of the current summer, and in peatland and humid tundra, also with summer temperatures of the preceding 1–2 years. In the northern taiga zone, the active layer depth related to current summer air temperature and to a lesser extent, to spring and/or winter air temperatures. Variations in summer permafrost temperatures at 5–10 m depth were correlated with spring air temperatures in the current and preceding 1–2 years. The weather regime during the preceding 1–2 years, therefore, reinforced or weakened ground temperature variations in a given year. Overall, the most important factors influencing the permafrost regime were spring and summer air temperatures, and in one case snow depth. However, statistical links between meteorological and permafrost parameters varied between the tundra and northern taiga zones and among landscape types within each zone, emphasising the importance of analyses at short temporal scales and for individual terrain units. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.