Using the PLFS 2018-19, this study intends to analyse current labour market from the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent lockdown and the expected slowdown in the Indian economy. We explore the questions such as: What share of workers will be able to work from home? Which are the vulnerable groups of workers in the labour market, that are likely to be the most affected? We show that 18-19% of non-farm workers are engaged in work from home (WFH) occupations, with women and urban areas having larger share of these workers. We find that 32 (10) % of non-farm workers in rural (urban) areas are vulnerable and face higher risk of job loss during a lockdown. JEL Classification Codes: J10, J21, J63, J80, D69
PurposeIn the process of school-to-work transition, the role of general education and vocational education and training (VET) remains quite central. Based on the human capital theory, we estimate whether investment in VET brings additional returns for workers across the age cohorts.Design/methodology/approachThe focus of our study being the labour market in India, the data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018–19, conducted by the National Statistical Office, has been used for analysis. We have applied the ordinary least square method with sample selection correction, the quasi-experimental technique of propensity score matching and heteroskedasticity based instrumental variable approach to estimate the returns with respect to no VET, formal VET and informal VET.FindingsOur study shows that workers with formal VET earn higher wages than workers with no VET or informal VET. The study finds that workers with informal VET do not earn higher wages than workers with no VET. Moreover, from the age cohort analysis, we have deduced that wage advantage of workers with formal VET persists across all age cohorts and, in fact, accentuates with an increase in age.Originality/valueWe have estimated that VET being complemented with basic general education fetches higher returns in the labour market, especially when provided through formal channels. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, in the case of developing countries where informal VET is widely provided, this is one of the first studies that captures the return to informal VET. Lastly, complementing the existing studies on the developed countries, we have estimated the returns to VET over the life cycle of the workers.
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Overall balance between expected available resources and planned investment is not sufficient to ensure development with stability. Imbalances and inflationary pressures could develop as a result of inconsistencies between sector‐wise investment structure and the sector‐wise structure of saving. This means that the dichotomy between real and financial planning needs to be eliminated not only at the national level but at the sectoral levels as well, so that the sector‐wise investment pattern is consistent with the emerging structure of saving and the flow‐of‐funds. This presents an analysis of the structure of saving and flow‐of‐funds in India, shows how it is actually used for the purpose of financial planning, and attempts to derive a formalized technique of financial planning. Analysis of the structure of saving in India during 1954–1955 to 1967–1968 indicates the importance of the household sector as the net lending sector to the borrowing sectors, the government and the private corporate sectors. On the basis of the feasible sectoral rates of growth in income and the past trends in sectoral saving‐income ratios and household saving pattern with such modifications as are necessary in the light of expected changes in various policies, sector‐wise saving structure and the pattern of household sector saving are projected for the Fourth Plan period (1969–1974).
Then a flow‐of‐funds matrix is prepared to derive sector‐wise investment estimates as are consistent with the estimated structure of saving and the likely changes in the lending policies of the financial institutions. A formalized technique of financial planning based on the Indian planning experience is presented in the last section of the paper.
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