This paper uses numerical simulation of flood inundation based on a coupled one-dimensionaltwo-dimensional treatment to explore the impacts upon flood extent of both long-term climate changes, predicted to the 2050s and 2080s, and short-term river channel changes in response to sediment delivery, for a temperate upland gravel-bed river. Results show that 16 months of measured in-channel sedimentation in an upland gravel-bed river cause about half of the increase in inundation extent that was simulated to arise from climate change. Consideration of the joint impacts of climate change and sedimentation emphasized the nonlinear nature of system response, and the possibly severe and synergistic effects that come from combined direct effects of climate change and sediment delivery. Such effects are likely to be exacerbated further as a result of the impacts of climate change upon coarse sediment delivery. In generic terms, these processes are commonly overlooked in flood risk mapping exercises and are likely to be important in any river system where there are high rates of sediment delivery and long-term transfer of sediment to floodplain storage (i.e. alluviation involving active channel aggradation and migration). Similarly, attempts to reduce channel migration through river bank stabilization are likely to exacerbate this process as without bank erosion, channel capacity cannot be maintained. Finally, many flood risk mapping studies rely upon calibration based upon combining contemporary bed surveys with historical flood outlines, and this will lead to underestimation of the magnitude and frequency of floodplain inundation in an aggrading system for a flood of a given magnitude.

Abstract:A much understudied aspect of flood inundation is examined, i.e. upland environments with topographically complex floodplains. Although the presence of high-resolution topographic data (e.g. lidar) has improved the quality of river flood inundation predictions, the optimum dimensionality of hydraulic models for this purpose has yet to be fully evaluated for situations of both topographic and topological (i.e. the connectivity of floodplain features) complexity. In this paper, we present the comparison of three treatments of upland flood inundation using: (a) a one-dimensional (1D) model (HEC-RAS v. 3Ð1Ð2) with the domain defined as series of extended cross-sections; (b) the same 1D model, but with the floodplain defined by a series of storage cells, hydraulically connected to the main river channel and other storage cells on the floodplain according to floodplain topological characteristics; (c) a two-dimensional (2D) diffusion wave treatment, again with explicit representation of floodplain structural features. The necessary topographic and topological data were derived using lidar and Ordnance Survey Landline data. The three models were tested on a 6 km upland reach of the River Wharfe, UK. The models were assessed by comparison with measured inundation extent. The results showed that both the extended cross-section and the storage cell 1D modes were conceptually problematic. They also resulted in poorer model predictions, requiring incorrect parameterization of the main river to floodplain flux in order to approach anything like the level of agreement observed when the 2D diffusion wave treatment was assessed. We conclude that a coupled 1D-2D treatment is likely to provide the best modelling approach, with currently available technology, for complex floodplain configurations.

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