Zoonoses are a worldwide public health concern, accounting for approximately 75% of human infectious diseases. In addition, zoonoses adversely affect agricultural production and wildlife. We review some mathematical models developed for the study of viral zoonoses in wildlife and identify areas where further modeling efforts are needed.

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Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been implicated in all human influenza pandemics in recent history. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the mechanisms underlying the maintenance and spread of these viruses in their natural bird reservoirs. Surveillance has identified an AIV 'hotspot' in shorebirds at Delaware Bay, in which prevalence is estimated to exceed other monitored sites by an order of magnitude. To better understand the factors that create an AIV hotspot, we developed and parametrized a mechanistic transmission model to study the simultaneous epizootiological impacts of multi-species transmission, seasonal breeding, host migration and mixed transmission routes. We scrutinized our model to examine the potential for an AIV hotspot to serve as a 'gateway' for the spread of novel viruses into North America. Our findings identify the conditions under which a novel influenza virus, if introduced into the system, could successfully invade and proliferate.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location-Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases.

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are considered a threat for their potential to seed human influenza pandemics. Despite their acknowledged importance, there are significant unknowns regarding AIV transmission dynamics in their natural hosts, wild birds. Of particular interest is the difference in subtype dynamics between human and bird populations–in human populations, typically only two or three subtypes cocirculate, while avian populations are capable of simultaneously hosting a multitude of subtypes. One species in particular–ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres)–has been found to harbour a very wide range of AIV subtypes, which could make them a key player in the spread of new subtypes in wild bird populations. Very little is known about the mechanisms that drive subtype dynamics in this species, and here we address this gap in our knowledge. Taking advantage of two independent sources of data collected from ruddy turnstones in Delaware Bay, USA, we examine patterns of subtype diversity and dominance at this site. We compare these patterns to those produced by a stochastic, multi-strain transmission model to investigate possible mechanisms that are parsimonious with the observed subtype dynamics. We find, in agreement with earlier experimental work, that subtype differences are unnecessary to replicate the observed dynamics, and that neutrality alone is sufficient. We also evaluate the role of subtype cross-immunity and find that it is not necessary to generate patterns consistent with observations. This work offers new insights into the mechanisms behind subtype diversity and dominance in a species that has the potential to be a key player in AIV dynamics in wild bird populations.