We consider a procedure of modeling of marine ecosystems combining the object-based modeling with traditional methods. The proposed procedure belongs to the junction of several different fields of science. To illustrate this procedure, we present the description of a chemicobiological object-based model of the plankton community of the shallow-water part of the northwest shelf of the Black Sea and some results obtained with the help of this model. The model includes the description of the life cycle of copepods (one of the most widespread and numerous groups of zooplankton. The comparative analysis of the numerical experiments performed under various environmental conditions is realized.The object-based modeling (OBM) is a relatively new but quite promising direction of investigations of complex biological systems. First, the technologies of OBM were developed in the fields of modeling if artificial life and artificial intelligence. The first attempts to apply the object-based approach to the construction of simulating models of biological systems were performed at the end of the 1980s [1-4]. These investigations led to the conclusion that the complex behavior of biological systems formed by numerous components can be a consequence of simple interactions between the individual components and, hence, should be modeled and studied by formulating simple rules applicable to families of relatively simple objects. The first works in this direction were devoted to the simulation of the dynamics of populations of various species of insects and bacteria [4][5][6]. Then the same methods were used for the construction of models of social and economic processes [7][8][9].As applied to the object-based modeling of living systems, it is possible to distinguish three main trends, namely, modeling based on cellular automata, individual-based modeling, and agent-based modeling [10]. The common feature of all these approaches is that the dynamics of systems is modeled from the lower level to the upper level, i.e., from micro-to macroscales, from the smallest and simplest components to the complex behavior on the level of population or community. The object-based models deal with numerous objects for which the formalized rules of their behavior in time are determined by the properties and methods depending on the nature of a specific object. The numerical calculations give a general picture of the dynamics of the entire system. In analyzing the results and checking the degree of adequacy of the model to the actual processes, it is necessary to compute some integral characteristics accepted in the corresponding field of investigations. The distinctions between the indicated approaches to object-based modeling are reduced to the difference between the types of objects used in the models. In the individual-based models (IBM), the role of the object of modeling is played by individual organisms. The vital activity of these objects is realized in the environment in the process of uninterrupted interaction with it, by consuming its resou...
We study the dynamics of age structure of the populations of copepods with the help of a chemicobiological model of shallow-water ecosystems developed on the basis of the technology of object-based modeling of marine ecological systems. The role of a prototype of the model species of copepods is played by Euterpina acutifrons (order Harpacticoida). The detailed analysis of parametrizations used for the description of the life cycle of this species is presented. We analyze the results of numerical experiments devoted to the investigation of a generation of copepods starting from the first stage of development, formation of a stationary age structure under various temperature and trophic conditions, and the appearance of population waves caused by the action of destabilizing factors on the population. Description of the ModelThe model contains three blocks conventionally called "hydrology," "hydrochemistry," and "biology." The hydrological block is represented by a two-layer integral model in which the upper layer bounded by the layer of jump variable in time and identified with the layer of wind mixing. The upper layer gets the flows of momen-Marine Hydrophysical Institute, Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Ukraine.
We propose to study the ecosystem of the plankton community of the euphotic shelf zone as a complex system with five hierarchical levels. To construct the computer image of the ecosystem, we use the methods of object-oriented modeling. The vital activity of the organisms of each species inside a certain conventional volume of water (basic object of the model) is described in detail. As a result, the entire system simulates the interaction of species in the analyzed ecosystem. The system combines four groups of biological elements (phytoplankton, bacteria, protozoa, and zooplankton) and biomineral elements (organic and mineral phosphorus) and includes the equations for the temperature of water and dissolved oxygen. The proposed numerical model reproduces the observed spotted character of the space and time distributions of the density of aquatic life and its activity. The data of the performed numerical experiments reveal the correspondence between the integral quantitative parameters computed in the model and the average characteristics obtained under natural conditions.
We consider an algorithm of prediction of nonstationary time series based on the method of analogs. Since the exhaustion of a great number of versions is required for the adjustment of the parameters of the optimal prognostic model, we describe a genetic algorithm used in this case. We consider several procedures of construction of prognostic models. The numerical results are used to choose the procedure guaranteeing the minimum mean square error. The parameters of the model affecting the quality of predictions are determined. The proposed method is tested by using the reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR project) on the anomalies of the monthly average surface air temperature for 58 yr. The results of predictions are compared with the estimates obtained by the linear regression method. It is shown that the method of analogs gives satisfactory results even in the cases where the regression methods lead to errors equal to the variance of predicted series.
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