To estimate the global illness and deaths caused by rotavirus disease, we reviewed studies published from 1986 to 2000 on deaths caused by diarrhea and on rotavirus infections in children. We assessed rotavirus-associated illness in three clinical settings (mild cases requiring home care alone, moderate cases requiring a clinic visit, and severe cases requiring hospitalization) and death rates in countries in different World Bank income groups. Each year, rotavirus causes approximately 111 million episodes of gastroenteritis requiring only home care, 25 million clinic visits, 2 million hospitalizations, and 352,000–592,000 deaths (median, 440,000 deaths) in children <5 years of age. By age 5, nearly every child will have an episode of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 1 in 5 will visit a clinic, 1 in 60 will be hospitalized, and approximately 1 in 293 will die. Children in the poorest countries account for 82% of rotavirus deaths. The tremendous incidence of rotavirus disease underscores the urgent need for interventions, such as vaccines, to prevent childhood deaths in developing nations.
Studies published between 1986 and 1999 indicated that rotavirus causes ≈22% (range 17%–28%) of childhood diarrhea hospitalizations. From 2000 to 2004, this proportion increased to 39% (range 29%–45%). Application of this proportion to the recent World Health Organization estimates of diarrhea-related childhood deaths gave an estimated 611,000 (range 454,000–705,000) rotavirus-related deaths.
Introduction of effective and available rotavirus vaccines could substantially affect worldwide deaths attributable to diarrhoea. Our new estimates can be used to advocate for rotavirus vaccine introduction and to monitor the effect of vaccination on mortality once introduced.
We conducted a systematic review of studies that used reverse transcription-PCR to diagnose norovirus (NoV) infections in patients with mild or moderate (outpatient) and severe (hospitalized) diarrhea. NoVs accounted for 12% (95% confi dence interval [CI] 10%-15%) of severe gastroenteritis cases among children <5 years of age and 12% (95% CI 9%-15%) of mild and moderate diarrhea cases among persons of all ages. Of 19 studies among children <5 years of age, 7 were in developing countries where pooled prevalence of severe NoV disease (12%) was comparable to that for industrialized countries (12%). We estimate that each year NoVs cause 64,000 episodes of diarrhea requiring hospitalization and 900,000 clinic visits among children in industrialized countries, and up to 200,000 deaths of children <5 years of age in developing countries. Future efforts should focus on developing targeted strategies, possibly even vaccines, for preventing NoV disease and better documenting their impact among children living in developing countries, where >95% of the deaths from diarrhea occur.
While rotavirus vaccine had been introduced in >60 countries worldwide by the end of 2013, the majority of countries using rotavirus vaccine during the review period were low-mortality countries and the impact of rotavirus vaccine on global estimates of rotavirus mortality has been limited. Continued monitoring of rotavirus mortality rates and deaths through rotavirus surveillance will aid in monitoring the impact of vaccination.
The development of rotavirus vaccines that are based on heterotypic or serotype-specific immunity has prompted many countries to establish programs to assess the disease burden associated with rotavirus infection and the distribution of rotavirus strains. Strain surveillance helps to determine whether the most prevalent local strains are likely to be covered by the serotype antigens found in current vaccines. After introduction of a vaccine, this surveillance could detect which strains might not be covered by the vaccine. Almost 2 decades ago, studies demonstrated that 4 globally common rotavirus serotypes (G1-G4) represent >90% of the rotavirus strains in circulation. Subsequently, these 4 serotypes were used in the development of reassortant vaccines predicated on serotype-specific immunity. More recently, the application of reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction genotyping, nucleotide sequencing, and antigenic characterization methods has confirmed the importance of the 4 globally common types, but a much greater strain diversity has also been identified (we now recognize strains with at least 42 P-G combinations). These studies also identified globally (G9) or regionally (G5, G8, and P2A[6]) common serotype antigens not covered by the reassortant vaccines that have undergone efficacy trials. The enormous diversity and capacity of human rotaviruses for change suggest that rotavirus vaccines must provide good heterotypic protection to be optimally effective.
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