Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are increasingly used for inference in situations in which the likelihood function is either computationally costly or intractable to evaluate. Extensions of the basic ABC rejection algorithm have improved the computational efficiency of the procedure and broadened its applicability. The ABC -Population Monte Carlo (ABC-PMC) approach has become a popular choice for approximate sampling from the posterior. ABC-PMC is a sequential sampler with an iteratively decreasing value of the tolerance, which specifies how close the simulated data need to be to the real data for acceptance. We propose a method for adaptively selecting a sequence of tolerances that improves the computational efficiency of the algorithm over other common techniques. In addition we define a stopping rule as a by-product of the adaptation procedure, which assists in automating termination of sampling. The proposed automatic ABC-PMC algorithm can be easily implemented and we present several examples demonstrating its benefits in terms of computational efficiency.

A: Reconstructing the position of an interaction for any dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with the best precision is key to directly detecting Dark Matter. Using the likelihood-free framework, a new algorithm to reconstruct the 2-D (x, y) position and the size of the charge signal (e) of an interaction is presented. The algorithm uses the secondary scintillation light distribution (S2) obtained by simulating events using a waveform generator. To deal with the computational effort required by the likelihood-free approach, we employ the Bayesian Optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference (BOLFI) algorithm. Together with BOLFI, prior distributions for the parameters of interest (x, y, e) and highly informative discrepancy measures to perform the analyses are introduced. We evaluate the quality of the proposed algorithm by a comparison against the currently existing alternative methods using a large-scale simulation study. BOLFI provides a natural probabilistic uncertainty measure for the reconstruction and it improved the accuracy of the reconstruction over the next best algorithm by up to 15% when focusing on events at large radii (R > 30 cm, the outer 37% of the detector). In addition, BOLFI provides the smallest uncertainties among all the tested methods.

Context. Stellar activity is one of the primary limitations to the detection of low-mass exoplanets using the radial-velocity (RV) technique. Stellar activity can be probed by measuring time-dependent variations in the shape of the cross-correlation function (CCF). It is therefore critical to measure with high-precision these shape variations to decorrelate the signal of an exoplanet from spurious RV signals caused by stellar activity. Aims. We propose to estimate the variations in shape of the CCF by fitting a Skew Normal (SN) density which, unlike the commonly employed Normal density, includes a Skewness parameter to capture the asymmetry of the CCF induced by stellar activity and the convective blueshift. Methods. We compared the performances of the proposed method to the commonly employed Normal density using both simulations and real observations with different levels of activity and signal-to-noise ratios. Results. When considering real observations, the correlation between the RV and the asymmetry of the CCF and between the RV and the width of the CCF are stronger when using the parameters estimated with the SN density rather than those obtained with the commonly employed Normal density. In particular, the strongest correlations have been obtained when using the mean of the SN as an estimate for the RV. This suggests that the CCF parameters estimated using a SN density are more sensitive to stellar activity, which can be helpful when estimating stellar rotational periods and when characterizing stellar activity signals. Using the proposed SN approach, the uncertainties estimated on the RV defined as the median of the SN are on average 10% smaller than the uncertainties calculated on the mean of the Normal. The uncertainties estimated on the asymmetry parameter of the SN are on average 15% smaller than the uncertainties measured on the Bisector Inverse Slope Span (BIS SPAN), which is the commonly used parameter to evaluate the asymmetry of the CCF. We also propose a new model to account for stellar activity when fitting a planetary signal to RV data. Based on simple simulations, we were able to demonstrate that this new model improves the planetary detection limits by 12% compared to the model commonly used to account for stellar activity. Conclusions. The SN density is a better model than the Normal density for characterizing the CCF since the correlations used to probe stellar activity are stronger and the uncertainties of the RV estimate and the asymmetry of the CCF are both smaller.