Purpose Persistent wave of armed conflicts – militancy and terrorism – and the mono-cultural structure of the Nigerian economy, as well as extensive reliance on revenue from crude oil, highlights how external vulnerabilities, weakening internal structure and insecurity could significantly exacerbate public revenue loss. Understanding the nature, trend and impact of these factors on government revenue is one of the questions that still remain unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach The study focusses on the state-failure and frustration-aggression hypotheses to explain the nature and trend of armed conflicts in Nigeria. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine the effect of global oil prices, militancy and terrorism on government revenue. Findings The study reveals that crude oil price, terrorism and militancy have significant negative effect on government revenue in short- and long-run Nigeria. Evidence from the study therefore supports the theory that macroeconomic fluctuation is largely determined by endogenous and exogenous factors in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications In view of this review, future studies should empirically analyse the interactive impact of militancy, terrorism and global oil prices on government expenditure or a combination of government revenue and expenditure. Originality/value The study provides evidence on the role of internal and external factors on macroeconomic fluctuation, and recommended appropriate suite of policies that could mitigate external and internal vulnerabilities, especially during upsurge in armed conflicts.
This study examines the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy normalization on Nigeria 10-Year Treasury bond yield between 2011 and 2017, using the vector error correction model approach. Our results reveal that domestic factors, such as exchange rate and inflation, rather than the U.S. 10-Year sovereign bond yield, are the key drivers of Nigeria 10-Year bond yield. Additionally, the spillover effect from the U.S. monetary policy was amplified by oil price shocks and changes in Nigeria's monetary policy rates. Our counterfactual analysis confirms the findings.
Price swings at international crude oil market significantly impact on macroeconomic fundamentals of oil dependent countries. Hence, understanding the relationship between oil price movement and the exchange rate has become imperative especially for oil exporting countries. This paper examines the causal effect between oil prices and Nigerian naira–US dollar exchange rate using frequency daily data for the period 12/07/2010-31/08/2017. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models were used to estimate our oil prices and nominal naira exchange rate equation. Our findings reveal a positive relation between oil price and naira exchange rate meaning that an upward movement in the price of oil causes the naira to depreciate. Conversely, any fall in oil price leads to appreciation in the value of the naira. The result has important policy implication given that 90% of the total annual foreign revenue of Nigeria comes from oil thus oil price shocks have severe impact on the Nigerian economy. This justifies the need for Nigeria’s economic diversification to minimize the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to vagaries of the international crude oil market and to delink the exchange rate and reserve movement from developments in oil prices.
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