The problem of accident prevention for complex structures is considered as multifactor forecasting problem, covering the tasks of Structural Health Monitoring, Non-Destructive Testing, situational modelling for joint behaviour of the object and multi sensor system in extreme cases, risk and residual life time evaluation. This task is considered as an inverse problem being solved in the Bayesian formulation. We introduce three principal characteristics of object behaviour, namely: impact, risk of direct consequences (vulnerability), and risk of indirect consequences. Interaction of the object under observation and monitoring system respectively is displayed in the form of graph, described with a matrix of transition probabilities, given opportunity to evaluate condition probability. The example is given for the calculation of residual life time for the steel cable roof of large sport building, basing on the estimate of operating reliability as a probability integral of critical parameters of detected defects.
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