Estimating geo-referenced fishing effort is vital to develop advice for effective fisheries management. Many studies in recent decades have attempted to obtain complete, high-resolution effort data from vessel monitoring systems (VMSs). The main challenge in this regard is to develop a classification method for differentiating fishing activities (e.g., fishing days) from nonfishing activities in VMS data. This study developed a simple, novel classification criterion for a large-scale tuna longline (LTLL) fishery that has not been studied before. LTLL operations were first explored using observer data. Three approaches were designed for developing fishing-day classification criteria, using maximizing sum of sensitivity and specificity (SS) as the major performance measure and minimizing difference of SS as a reference. At least one VMS report with speed in the range of 2–5 kn (1 kn = 1.852 km·h–1) detected during the time-of-day period of 14:00–23:00 h was recommended as the criterion for defining a fishing day. Possible explanations for the differences between the estimated fishing days from VMS data and those reported on logbooks are discussed; most causes were related to specific features of the fishery.
Data from coastal fisheries are often incomplete, as these fisheries are usually small in scale, rendering them exempt from logbook submission requirements. The catch of Dolphinfish Coryphaena hippurus by Taiwanese fisheries once ranked second in the world but has dramatically declined to very low levels in recent years. To address this decline, assessment of a Dolphinfish abundance index was necessary. However, due to the small scale of the fisheries, logbook data were not available to calculate CPUE. This study aimed to estimate a statistically reliable index by (1) assigning effort matrices to landings data using coastal surveillance radar data; (2) standardizing the 2001-2015 CPUEs while using four approaches (classifying fishing tactics by multivariate techniques and principal components analysis) to differentiate the fisheries' effort toward catching Dolphinfish from the effort toward other target species; and (3) evaluating performance of the standardization models by using an R 2 estimated by cross-validation and bootstrap procedures. The approach that used a delta-generalized additive model with a direct principal components procedure demonstrated the best fit. This study presents an example of deriving a statistically reliable abundance index from the data-incomplete situations common for coastal fisheries, which allows for follow-up population dynamics studies. The resulting index for Dolphinfish in the Taiwanese region showed two 7-year cycles, with a prominent decline in 2015. Reasons for the fluctuation are unknown but may be due to environmental factors, the fast-growing nature of the fish, and heavy exploitation of the stock by Taiwanese fisheries.
Short-term load forecast (STLF) plays an important role in power system operations. This paper proposes a spline bases-assisted Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for STLF with a semi-parametric model being adopted to determine the suitable spline bases for constructing the RNN model. To reduce the exposure to real-time uncertainties, interpolation is achieved by an adapted mean adjustment and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) scheme for finer time interval forecast adjustment. To circumvent the effects of forecasted apparent temperature bias, the forecasted temperatures issued by the weather bureau are adjusted using the average of the forecast errors over the preceding 28 days. The proposed RNN model is trained using 15-min interval load data from the Taiwan Power Company (TPC) and has been used by system operators since 2019. Forecast results show that the spline bases-assisted RNN-STLF method accurately predicts the short-term variations in power demand over the studied time period. The proposed real-time short-term load calibration scheme can help accommodate unexpected changes in load patterns and shows great potential for real-time applications.
Information on age and growth is essential to modern stock assessment and the development of management plans for fish resources. To provide quality otolith-based estimates of growth parameters, this study performed five types of analyses on the two important croakers that were under high fishing pressure in southwestern Taiwan: Pennahia macrocephalus (big-head pennah croaker) and Atrobucca nibe (blackmouth croaker): (1) Estimation of length–weight relationships (LWR) with discussion on the differences with previous studies; (2) validation of the periodicity of ring formation using edge analysis; (3) examination of three age determination methods (integral, quartile and back-calculation methods) and selection of the most appropriate one using a k-fold cross-validation simulation; (4) determination of the representative growth models from four candidate models using a multimodel inference approach; and, (5) compilation of growth parameters for all Pennahia and Atrobucca species published globally for reviewing the clusters of estimates using auximetric plots of logged growth parameters. The study observed that features of samples affected the LWR estimates. Edge analysis supported the growth rings were formed annually, and the cross-validation study supported the quartile method (age was determined as the number of opaque bands on otolith plus the quartile of the width of the marginal translucent band) provided more appropriate estimates of age. The multimodel inference approach suggested the von Bertalanffy growth model as the optimal model for P. macrocephalus and logistic growth model for A. nibe, with asymptotic lengths and relative growth rates of 18.0 cm TL and 0.789 year−1 and 55.21 cm, 0.374 year−1, respectively. Auximetric plots of global estimates showed a downward trend with clusters by species. Growth rates of the two species were higher than in previous studies using the same aging structure (otolith) and from similar locations conducted a decade ago, suggesting a possible effect of increased fishing pressure and the need to establish a management framework. This study adds updated information to the global literature and provides an overview of growth parameters for the two important croakers.
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