No abstract

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.

No abstract

The effect of anthropogenic landscape change on disease in wildlife populations represents a growing conservation and public health concern. Red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus), an endangered primate species, are particularly susceptible to habitat alteration and have been the focus of a great deal of disease and ecological research as a result. To infer how landscape changes can affect host and parasite dynamics, a spatially explicit agent-based model is created to simulate movement and foraging of this primate, based on a resource landscape estimated from extensive plot-derived tree population data from Kibale National Park, Uganda. Changes to this resource landscape are used to simulate effects of anthropogenic forest change. With each change in the landscape, disease outcomes within the simulated red colobus population are monitored using a hypothetical microparasite with a directly transmitted life cycle. The model predicts an optimal distribution of resources which facilitates the spread of an infectious agent through the simulated population. The density of resource rich sites and the overall heterogeneity of the landscape are important factors contributing to this spread. The characteristics of this optimal distribution are similar to those of logged sections of forest adjacent to our study area.

As the effects of global climate change become more apparent, animal species will become increasingly affected by extreme climate and its effect on the environment. There is a pressing need to understand animal physiological and behavioural responses to climatic stressors. We used the reactive scope model as a framework to investigate the influence of drought conditions on vervet monkey (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) behaviour, physiological stress and survival across 2.5 years in South Africa. Data were collected on climatic, environmental and behavioural variables and physiological stress via faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (fGCMs). There was a meaningful interaction between water availability and resource abundance: when food availability was high but standing water was unavailable, fGCM concentrations were higher compared to when food was abundant and water was available. Vervet monkeys adapted their behaviour during a drought period by spending a greater proportion of time resting at the expense of feeding, moving and social behaviour. As food availability decreased, vervet mortality increased. Peak mortality occurred when food availability was at its lowest and there was no standing water. A survival analysis revealed that higher fGCM concentrations were associated with an increased probability of mortality. Our results suggest that with continued climate change, the increasing prevalence of drought will negatively affect vervet abundance and distribution in our population. Our study contributes to knowledge of the limits and scope of behavioural and physiological plasticity among vervet monkeys in the face of rapid environmental change.