Context Small single-center studies have shown that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers may be useful to identify incipient Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), but large-scale multicenter studies have not been conducted. Objective To determine the diagnostic accuracy of CSF ␤-amyloid 1-42 (A␤42), total tau protein (T-tau), and tau phosphorylated at position threonine 181 (P-tau) for predicting incipient AD in patients with MCI. Design, Setting, and Participants The study had 2 parts: a cross-sectional study involving patients with AD and controls to identify cut points, followed by a prospective cohort study involving patients with MCI, conducted 1990-2007. A total of 750 individuals with MCI, 529 with AD, and 304 controls were recruited by 12 centers in Europe and the United States. Individuals with MCI were followed up for at least 2 years or until symptoms had progressed to clinical dementia. Main Outcome Measures Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) of CSF A␤42, T-tau, and P-tau for identifying incipient AD. Results During follow-up, 271 participants with MCI were diagnosed with AD and 59 with other dementias. The A␤42 assay in particular had considerable intersite variability. Patients who developed AD had lower median A␤42 (356; range, 96-1075 ng/L) and higher P-tau (81; range, 15-183 ng/L) and T-tau (582; range, 83-2174 ng/L) levels than MCI patients who did not develop AD during follow-up (579; range, 121-1420 ng/L for A␤42; 53; range, 15-163 ng/L for P-tau; and 294; range, 31-2483 ng/L for T-tau, PϽ.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.82) for A␤42, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80) for P-tau, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) for T-tau. Cutoffs with sensitivity set to 85% were defined in the AD and control groups and tested in the MCI group, where the combination of A␤42/P-tau ratio and T-tau identified incipient AD with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI, 78%-88%), specificity 72% (95% CI, 68%-76%), positive LR, 3.0 (95% CI, 2.5-3.4), and negative LR, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.21-0.28). The positive predictive value was 62% and the negative predictive value was 88%. Conclusions This multicenter study found that CSF A␤42, T-tau, and P-tau identify incipient AD with good accuracy, but less accurately than reported from single-center studies. Intersite assay variability highlights a need for standardization of analytical techniques and clinical procedures.

Background: There is a clear need to develop an objective diagnostic test for Alzheimer disease (AD). Changes in the levels of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tau protein and ␤-amyloid 42 (A␤42) peptide in patients with AD have been well documented, but the relationship between these biomarkers and neuropathologic changes in the brain is not established. Objective: To study the relationship between antemortem CSF biomarker levels and Alzheimer-type neuropathologic changes in the brain. Design: Cross-sectional study to correlate levels of CSF A␤42, total tau, and phosphorylated tau protein with neuropathologic changes in the brain.

Although mean plasma Abeta40 levels are elevated in sporadic AD and influenced by Apo E genotype, measurement of plasma Abeta40 levels is not useful to support the clinical diagnosis of AD. Lower levels of CSF Abeta42 in the AD group are consistent with previous studies.

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Hyperphosphorylated tau protein (P-tau) in CSF is a core biomarker candidate of Alzheimer's disease. Hyperphosphorylation of tau is thought to lead to neurofibrillary changes, a neuropathological hallmark of this type of dementia. Currently, the question is unresolved whether CSF levels of P-tau reflect neurofibrillary changes within the brain of a patient with the illness. Twenty-six patients were included with intra-vitam CSF as well as post-mortem neuropathological data. In the CSF, P-tau phosphorylated at threonine 231 (P-tau231P) was analysed. Post-mortem, scores of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) and neuritic plaques (NP) were assessed in frontal, temporal, parietal and hippocampal cortical areas. In the same cortical regions, load of hyperphosphorylated tau protein (HP-tau load) was determined. Concentrations of P-tau231P were measured in frontal cortex homogenates. We found significant correlations between CSF P-tau231P concentrations and scores of NFTs and HP-tau load in all neocortical regions studied. The score of NPs was correlated with CSF P-tau231P only within the frontal cortex. There was a correlation between P-tau231P in CSF and brain homogenates. These findings indicate that CSF P-tau231P may serve as an in vivo surrogate biomarker of neurofibrillary pathology in Alzheimer's disease.