An important topic of global concern is the likely reduction of maize production in response to climate change in association with increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which threatens food security. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate changes in three main maize growing areas of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Lichtenburg and Nelspruit) using two crop modelling solutions: existing (EMS) and modified (MMS) CropSyst. The MMS considers explicitly the impact of extreme heat and drought. Both solutions were run with climate data generated from two radiative forcing scenarios using six general circulation models and three time horizons representing baseline (1990-2020), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2051-2080) time periods. Reduced yields were projected with both modelling solutions especially under far future time period. Simulated maize yield using EMS with high radiative forcing for far future decreased (compared with the simulated baseline for EMS) by 30%, 25.9% and 18.3% at Bloemfontein, Lichtenburg and Nelspruit, respectively. Simulated grain yield with MMS showed reductions of 27.6%, 24.3% and 18.7%, respectively (compared with the simulated baseline for MMS). Grain yield differences between the EMS and MMS ranged between 9 and 21%. This difference showed an increasing trend as time progressed from the baseline to the far future and varied across locations. Accounting explicitly for the impact of extreme weather events (MMS) resulted in lower simulated yields compared with the model without (EMS). Findings from this study warrant the need for location-specific model simulation using MMS-type models to improve crop yield predictions under climate change for better food security planning and policy formulation.
This study aimed to investigate the socio-economic benefits stemming from bush clearing and restoration projects conducted in the Lephalale municipality, within the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The study was conducted at two sites: the D’Nyala Nature Reserve and a nearby local village, Shongoane. A qualitative thematic content analysis approach and semi-structured interviews were used to gather data from 14 purposively selected participants between the ages of 22 and 55 (male = 9 and female = 5). The results indicated that the nature reserve benefited from the project via the improved visibility of the landscape features and game viewing, which made the reserve more attractive for tourists and resulted in increased revenue. The costs of buying feed for game could also be curbed since the grazing capacity increased. Since the nature reserve sourced temporary labour from the local village to execute the project, the community benefited in terms of members being able to earn a wage, which led to an improvement in their livelihoods. Another indirect benefit was the morale and behavioural changes observed amongst community members. It was obvious that the socio-economic benefits derived from projects such as these far outweigh the negatives and that there is every reason to institute projects of a similar nature elsewhere.
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