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Current research policy and strategy documents recommend applying life cycle assessment (LCA) early in research and development (R&D) to guide emerging technologies toward decreased environmental burden. However, existing LCA practices are ill-suited to support these recommendations. Barriers related to data availability, rapid technology change, and isolation of environmental from technical research inhibit application of LCA to developing technologies. Overcoming these challenges requires methodological advances that help identify environmental opportunities prior to large R&D investments. Such an anticipatory approach to LCA requires synthesis of social, environmental, and technical knowledge beyond the capabilities of current practices. This paper introduces a novel framework for anticipatory LCA that incorporates technology forecasting, risk research, social engagement, and comparative impact assessment, then applies this framework to photovoltaic (PV) technologies. These examples illustrate the potential for anticipatory LCA to prioritize research questions and help guide environmentally responsible innovation of emerging technologies.

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This paper presents an attributional life cycle assessment of biopolymers and traditional plastics using real world disposal methods based on collected data and existing inventories. The focus of this LCA is to investigate actual disposal methods for the end of life phase of biopolymers and traditional fossil-based plastics relative to their corresponding production impacts. This paper connects commonly available methods of disposal for traditional fossil-based plastics and the compostability of polylactic acid and thermoplastic starch to compare these materials not just based on production impacts but also on various scenarios for recycling, composting, and landfilling. Additionally, three traditional resins were evaluated (PET, HDPE, and LDPE) using fossil and bio-based production pathways to assess the performance of biobased products in the recycling stream. The results demonstrate real environmental tradeoffs associated with agricultural production of plastics and the consequential changes resulting from shifting from recyclable to compostable products. The potential for methane production in landfills is a significant factor for global warming impacts associated with biopolymers while recycling provides major benefits in the global warming and fossil fuel depletion categories. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the relative importance of locale-specific factors such as travel distances and sorting technologies to the end of life treatment methods of recycling, composting, and landfilling. The results show that composting has some advantages, especially when compared to impacts associated with landfilling, but that recycling provides the greatest benefits at end of life.

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