Understanding the role of permafrost in controlling groundwater flow paths and fluxes is central in studies aimed at assessing potential climate change impacts on vegetation, species habitat, biogeochemical cycling, and biodiversity. Recent field studies in interior Alaska show evidence of hydrologic changes hypothesized to result from permafrost degradation. This study assesses the hydrologic control exerted by permafrost, elucidates modes of regional groundwater flow for various spatial permafrost patterns, and evaluates potential hydrologic consequences of permafrost degradation. The Yukon Flats Basin (YFB), a large (118,340 km2) subbasin within the Yukon River Basin, provides the basis for this investigation. Model simulations that represent an assumed permafrost thaw sequence reveal the following trends with decreasing permafrost coverage: (1) increased groundwater discharge to rivers, consistent with historical trends in base flow observations in the Yukon River Basin, (2) potential for increased overall groundwater flux, (3) increased spatial extent of groundwater discharge in lowlands, and (4) decreased proportion of suprapermafrost (shallow) groundwater contribution to total base flow. These trends directly affect the chemical composition and residence time of riverine exports, the state of groundwater‐influenced lakes and wetlands, seasonal river‐ice thickness, and stream temperatures. Presently, the YFB is coarsely mapped as spanning the continuous‐discontinuous permafrost transition that model analysis shows to be a critical threshold; thus, the YFB may be on the verge of major hydrologic change should the current permafrost extent decrease. This possibility underscores the need for improved characterization of permafrost and other hydrogeologic information in the region via geophysical techniques, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations.

[1] The evolution of permafrost in cold regions is inextricably connected to hydrogeologic processes, climate, and ecosystems. Permafrost thawing has been linked to changes in wetland and lake areas, alteration of the groundwater contribution to streamflow, carbon release, and increased fire frequency. But detailed knowledge about the dynamic state of permafrost in relation to surface and groundwater systems remains an enigma. Here, we present the results of a pioneering $1,800 line-kilometer airborne electromagnetic survey that shows sediments deposited over the past $4 million years and the configuration of permafrost to depths of $100 meters in the Yukon Flats area near Fort Yukon, Alaska. The Yukon Flats is near the boundary between continuous permafrost to the north and discontinuous permafrost to the south, making it an important location for examining permafrost dynamics. Our results not only provide a detailed snapshot of the present-day configuration of permafrost, but they also expose previously unseen details about potential surface -groundwater connections and the thermal legacy of surface water features that has been recorded in the permafrost over the past $1,000 years. This work will be a critical baseline for future permafrost studies aimed at exploring the connections between hydrogeologic, climatic, and ecological processes, and has significant implications for the stewardship of Arctic environments.

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Abstract.A coupled hydrogeophysical forward and inverse modeling approach is developed to illustrate the ability of frequency-domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) data to characterize subsurface physical properties associated with sublacustrine permafrost thaw during lake-talik formation. Numerical modeling scenarios are evaluated that consider non-isothermal hydrologic responses to variable forcing from different lake depths and for different hydrologic gradients. A novel physical property relationship connects the dynamic distribution of electrical resistivity to ice saturation and temperature outputs from the SUTRA groundwater simulator with freeze-thaw physics. The influence of lithology on electrical resistivity is controlled by a surface conduction term in the physical property relationship. Resistivity models, which reflect changes in subsurface conditions, are used as inputs to simulate AEM data in order to explore the sensitivity of geophysical observations to permafrost thaw. Simulations of sublacustrine talik formation over a 1000-year period are modeled after conditions found in the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Synthetic AEM data are analyzed with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that quantifies geophysical parameter uncertainty and resolution. Major lithological and permafrost features are well resolved by AEM data in the examples considered. The subtle geometry of partial ice saturation beneath lakes during talik formation cannot be resolved using AEM data, but the gross characteristics of sub-lake resistivity models reflect bulk changes in ice content and can identify the presence of a talik. A final synthetic example compares AEM and ground-based electromagnetic responses for their ability to resolve shallow permafrost and thaw features in the upper 1-2 m below ground outside the lake margin.