Summary 1.A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km 2 of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA.2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures ( ‡32°C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32°C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

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Abstract. The bill structures of different call types of red crossbills (Loxia curvirostra complex) in western North America usually approximate the predicted optima for foraging on single species of conifers. One clear exception is the call type in the South Hills, Idaho, that is coevolving in an evolutionary arms race with Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta ssp. latifolia). Although South Hills crossbills forage only on the cones of these lodgepole pines, their average bill depth is smaller than that predicted to be optimal. Because preliminary data showed that large-billed males were more likely to exhibit symptoms of ectoparasitic mite (Knemidokoptes jamaicensis) infestation, the goal of our study was to further quantify the incidence of mite infestation and determine whether selection by mites may have favored smaller-billed crossbills and thus driven crossbills away from the foraging optimum. We estimated annual survival of both infected and uninfected South Hills crossbills using program MARK, which allows for auxiliary variables such as bill size and sex to be included in survival analyses. Mite infestation depressed crossbill survival and, especially for males, caused directional selection against larger-billed individuals. Such selection may explain why South Hills crossbills have smaller bills than the optimum and why average bill size for males has decreased from 1998 to 2003. This selection may also explain why the degree of sexual size dimorphism has decreased by nearly 50% since 1998.

Although food resources are thought to limit many populations, the extent to which the population dynamics of predators and prey are coupled is rarely known. We examined a sedentary population of Red Crossbills (Loxia curvirostra L. complex) that relies on seeds in cones that accumulate in the canopy of Rocky Mountain Lodgepole Pine (Pinus contorta latifolia Engelm.). Nearly constant annual seed production and gradual weathering over many years of initially impenetrable cones in the tree canopy results in a continuous and perhaps roughly constant replenishment of accessible seeds. However, seed availability varies seasonally. We estimated the seasonal variation in the energy demands of the study population. Our results demonstrate that seed predation by these sedentary Red Crossbills potentially drives the seasonal variation in seed availability and likely causes the Red Crossbill population to be regulated. The results are also consistent with a nearly constant replenishment of accessible seeds. In its apparent population stability this sedentary crossbill differs greatly from many other crossbills, which often vary in abundance by several orders of magnitude from year to year.

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