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We propose the multiple changepoint isolation (MCI) method for detecting multiple changes in the mean and covariance of a functional process. We first introduce a pair of projections to represent the variability "between" and "within" the functional observations. We then present an augmented fused lasso procedure to split the projections into multiple regions robustly. These regions act to isolate each changepoint away from the others so that the powerful univariate CUSUM statistic can be applied region-wise to identify the changepoints. Simulations show that our method accurately detects the number and locations of changepoints under many different scenarios. These include light and heavy tailed data, data with symmetric and skewed distributions, sparsely and densely sampled changepoints, and mean and covariance changes. We show that our method outperforms a recent multiple functional changepoint detector and several univariate changepoint detectors applied to our proposed projections. We also show that MCI is more robust than existing approaches and scales linearly with sample size. Finally, we demonstrate our method on a large time series of water vapor mixing ratio profiles from atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer measurements.

We propose a new solution under the Bayesian framework to simultaneously estimate mean-based asynchronous changepoints in spatially correlated functional time series. Unlike previous methods that assume a shared changepoint at all spatial locations or ignore spatial correlation, our method treats changepoints as a spatial process. This allows our model to respect spatial heterogeneity and exploit spatial correlations to improve estimation. Our method is derived from the ubiquitous cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic that dominates changepoint detection in functional time series. However, instead of directly searching for the maximum of the CUSUM-based processes, we build spatially correlated two-piece linear models with appropriate variance structure to locate all changepoints at once. The proposed linear model approach increases the robustness of our method to variability in the CUSUM process, which, combined with our spatial correlation model, improves changepoint estimation near the edges. We demonstrate through extensive simulation studies that our method outperforms existing functional changepoint estimators in terms of both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification, under either weak or strong spatial correlation, and weak or strong change signals. Finally, we demonstrate our method using a temperature data set and a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) study. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online. Supplementary materials for this article are available at 10.1007/s13253-022-00519-w.

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