We estimated population densities of the red-bellied racer (Alsophis rufiventris) on the Caribbean island of St. Eustatius in 2011, 2018 and 2019 to determine the likely influence of hurricanes Irma and Maria (September 2017), in addition to evaluating abiotic parameters which may be correlated with its presence. Surveys were conducted at seven sites in 2011 prior to the hurricanes, and at 81 and 108 sites in 2018 and 2019 respectively posterior to the hurricanes. A total of 8.2 ha was surveyed in 2011, and 11.42 ha in 2018/2019. The pre-hurricane (2011) racer density estimate was 9.2/ha (min 7.3 - max 11.6); post-hurricane estimates were 4.6/ha (min 3.4 - max 6.0) in 2018 and 5.0/ha (min 3.8 - max 6.5) in 2019. The pre-hurricane encounter rate of individual racers was 16.0 snakes/hour compared to 0.34 snakes/hour in 2018 and 0.41 snakes/hour in 2019 (post-hurricane). The decrease in encounter rates between 2011 and 2019 implies a negative impact of the hurricanes on racer abundance. Based on calculations of detection probability (0.02 in 2018 and 0.03 in 2019), post-hurricane lambda estimates were 1.82 (95% CI 0.66 - 5.01) in 2018 and 1.60 (95% CI 0.39 - 6.65) snakes/ha in 2019. Given the current small size of the remaining population and the presence of invasive species across the snake's range, this species could be at risk of local extirpation. We suggest conservation actions such as invasive species management and habitat restoration to enable further recovery.
In this study, we assessed invasions of Psittaciformes in Puerto Rico. We reviewed the literature, public databases, citizen science records, and performed in situ population surveys across the island to determine the historical and current status and distribution of psittacine species. We used count data from Ebird to determine population trends. For species whose populations were increasing, we modelled their potential distribution using niche modeling techniques. Focusing on the white-winged parakeet (Brotogeris versicolurus), which was considered the most successful psittacine species by the year 2000, we evaluated the population size, calculated growth rates and estimated the breeding proportion in two populations by performing roost counts for four consecutive years. We found a total of 46 Psittaciformes present in Puerto Rico, of which 26% are only present as pets, at least 29 species have been reported in the wild, and of those, there is evidence that at least 12 species are breeding. Our results indicate that most introduced species which have been detected as established still persist, although mostly in localized areas and small populations. Clear evidence of invasiveness was found for B. versicolurus and Myiopsitta monachus, which have greatly expanded their range.Moreover, Psittacara erythrogenys and Eupsittacula canicularis also showed population increase. The niche models predicted suitable areas for the four species, and also indicate the potential for range expansion. Population estimates of the white-winged parakeet during the study period showed a steady increase, and exhibited exponential growth, with geometric mean population growth rates of 1.25 per year. Currently growth rate of the white-winged parakeet does not appear to be limited by any predator, resources or nest availability, and we expect them to continue increasing and expanding their range. We peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/264937 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Feb. 14, 2018; 3 discuss the factors leading to invasion success, assess the potential impacts, and we discuss possible management strategies and research prospects.
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