The massive worldwide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is fueling the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the first whole-genome sequence was published in January 2020, a growing database of tens of thousands of viral genomes has been constructed. This offers opportunities to study pathways of molecular change in the expanding viral population that can help identify molecular culprits of virulence and virus spread. Here we investigate the genomic accumulation of mutations at various time points of the early pandemic to identify changes in mutationally highly active genomic regions that are occurring worldwide. We used the Wuhan NC_045512.2 sequence as a reference and sampled 15 342 indexed sequences from GISAID, translating them into proteins and grouping them by month of deposition. The per-position amino acid frequencies and Shannon entropies of the coding sequences were calculated for each month, and a map of intrinsic disorder regions and binding sites was generated. The analysis revealed dominant variants, most of which were located in loop regions and on the surface of the proteins. Mutation entropy decreased between March and April of 2020 after steady increases at several sites, including the D614G mutation site of the spike (S) protein that was previously found associated with higher case fatality rates and at sites of the NSP12 polymerase and the NSP13 helicase proteins. Notable expanding mutations include R203K and G204R of the nucleocapsid (N) protein inter-domain linker region and G251V of the viroporin encoded by ORF3a between March and April. The regions spanning these mutations exhibited significant intrinsic disorder, which was enhanced and decreased by the N-protein and viroporin 3a protein mutations, respectively. These results predict an ongoing mutational shift from the spike and replication complex to other regions, especially to encoded molecules known to represent major β-interferon antagonists. The study provides valuable information for therapeutics and vaccine design, as well as insight into mutation tendencies that could facilitate preventive control.

No abstract

The massive worldwide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is fueling the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the first whole-genome sequence was published in January 2020, a growing database of tens of thousands of viral genomes has been constructed. This offers opportunities to study pathways of molecular change in the expanding viral population that can help identify molecular culprits of virulence and virus spread. Here we investigate the genomic accumulation of mutations at various time points of the early pandemic to identify changes in mutationally highly active genomic regions that are occurring worldwide. We used the Wuhan NC_045512.2 sequence as a reference and sampled 15,342 indexed sequences from GISAID, translating them into proteins and grouping them by month of deposition. The per-position amino acid frequencies and Shannon entropies of the coding sequences were calculated for each month, and a map of intrinsic disorder regions and binding sites was generated. The analysis revealed dominant variants, most of which were located in loop regions and on the surface of the proteins. Mutation entropy decreased between March and April of 2020 after steady increases at several sites, including the D614G mutation site of the spike (S) protein that was previously found associated with higher case fatality rates and at sites of the NSP 12 polymerase and the NSP13 helicase proteins. Notable expanding mutations include R203K and G204R of the nucleocapsid (N) protein inter-domain linker region and G251V of the viroporin encoded by ORF3a between March and April. The regions spanning these mutations exhibited significant intrinsic disorder, which was enhanced and decreased by the N-protein and viroporin 3a protein mutations, respectively. These results predict an ongoing mutational shift from the spike and replication complex to other regions, especially to encoded molecules known to represent major beta-interferon antagonists. The study provides valuable information for therapeutics and vaccine design, as well as insight into mutation tendencies that could facilitate preventive control.

Background: Variants of concern (VOCs) have been replacing each other during the still rampant COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, SARS-CoV-2 populations have evolved increasingly intricate constellations of mutations that often enhance transmissibility, disease severity, and other epidemiological characteristics. The origin and evolution of these constellations remain puzzling. Methods: Here we study the evolution of VOCs at the proteome level by analyzing about 12 million genomic sequences retrieved from GISAID on July 23, 2022. A total 183,276 mutations were identified and filtered with a relevancy heuristic. The prevalence of haplotypes and free-standing mutations was then tracked monthly in various latitude corridors of the world. Results: A chronology of 22 haplotypes defined three phases driven by protein flexibility-rigidity, environmental sensing, and immune escape. A network of haplotypes illustrated the recruitment and coalescence of mutations into major VOC constellations and seasonal effects of decoupling and loss. Protein interaction networks mediated by haplotypes predicted communications impacting the structure and function of proteins, showing the increasingly central role of molecular interactions involving the spike (S), nucleocapsid (N), and membrane (M) proteins. Haplotype markers either affected fusogenic regions while spreading along the sequence of the S-protein or clustered around binding domains. Modeling of protein structure with AlphaFold2 showed that VOC Omicron and one of its haplotypes were major contributors to the distortion of the M-protein endodomain, which behaves as a receptor of other structural proteins during virion assembly. Remarkably, VOC constellations acted cooperatively to balance the more extreme effects of individual haplotypes. Conclusions: Our study uncovers seasonal patterns of emergence and diversification occurring amid a highly dynamic evolutionary landscape of bursts and waves. The mapping of genetically-linked mutations to structures that sense environmental change with powerful ab initio modeling tools demonstrates the potential of deep-learning for COVID-19 predictive intelligence and therapeutic intervention.

No abstract