Multilayer perceptron neural network is one of the widely used method for load forecasting. There are hyperparameters which can be used to determine the network structure and used to train the multilayer perceptron neural network model. This paper aims to propose a framework for grid search model based on the walk-forward validation methodology. The training process will specify the optimal models which satisfy requirement for minimum of accuracy scores of root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. The testing process will evaluate the optimal models along with the other ones. The results indicated that the optimal models have accuracy scores near the minimum values. The US airline passenger and Ho Chi Minh city load demand data were used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the grid search framework.
The exponential smoothing method is one of the widely used methods for load forecasting. The taxonomy of exponential smoothing method shows that its trend and seasonal component affect the results of exponential smoothing method. This paper proposed a framework for grid search with the optimal model of exponential smoothing method based on math formulas. The training process will specify the optimal models which satisfy requirement of minimum of akaike information criterion, accuracy scores of the root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error. The testing process will evaluate the accuracy scores between the optimal models and all other ones. The results indicated that the optimal models have accuracy scores near the minimum values. The load demand data collected in Ho Chi Minh City were used to verify the accuracy and reliability of the grid search framework.
XGBoost is a highly effective and widely used machine learning model and its hyperparameters take an important role on the performance of the model. This paper presents a new grid search (GS) algorithm for obtaining optimal hyperparameters of the XGBoost model based on the median values of their error loss. A benchmark method used to evaluate the proposed and original GS algorithms is introduced. Datasets with measured daily electricity demand load values of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and Tasmania state, Australia are analyzed for the performance of both algorithms. The error metrics, mean squared errors (MSEs), of the proposed algorithm are found to be 2,282 MW and 501 MW that are smaller than those of original algorithms, which are 2,424 MW and 537 MW in case of Ho Chi Minh City and Tasmania state, respectively. These results then verify the accuracy of the proposed algorithm.
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