Toshihiko TAHARA, Satoru OISHI 1 学生員 神戸大学大学院 工学研究科市民工学専攻(〒657-8501 兵庫県神戸市灘区六甲台町1-1) 2 フェロー会員 工博 神戸大学教授 都市安全研究センター(〒657-8501 兵庫県神戸市灘区六甲台町1-1)Recently, there has been considerable interest to improve the flood control function of the dams by prior releasing. Carrying out prior releasing has the risk in terms of water utilization. Therefore, it should be taken into consideration that releasing larger amount of water than rain gives water shortage. In this study, we examined the possibility of prior releasing using accumulated rainfall forecasted by Japan Meteorological Agency. Concretely, we investigated that it could estimate the accuracy of forecasted accumulated rainfall based on Global Spectral Model (GSM) by adding the information of spreads calculated by One-week Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS). As a result, we found that the accuracy of forecasted accumulated rainfall based on GSM relates to the spreads calculated by WEPS in case of typhoon. The study results further suggest that it will be possible to improve the flood control function of the dams by prior releasing using forecasted accumulated rainfall.
Recently, heavy rain by typhoon increases risk of disaster everywhere in Japan. There has been considerable interest to improve the flood control function of dams by prior releasing because an action plan was enacted to fully use the existing hydraulic structures to prevent flood disasters. Carrying out prior releasing has a risk in terms of water supply purpose, in other words, it may cause artificial drought. Therefore, it should be taken into consideration that releasing larger amount of water than rain gives water shortage. In the present study, we suggested the method of dam operation based on rainfall forecast including prior releasing considering the risk in terms of water supply purpose. Concretely, first, we investigated that it could estimate the accuracy of forecasted accumulated rainfall based on Global Spectral Model (GSM) by adding the information of spreads calculated by Weekly Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS) in the Yodo river basin. Second, accumulated rainfall based on GSM errors using gamma distribution was analyzed. Third, the method of dam operation based on rainfall forecast including prior releasing was applied to past examples and the effect was verified. As a result, peak discharge in Hirakata point was reduced than normal operation in case of rainfall prediction was accurate.Engineering
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