This paper constructs various measures of domestic and global uncertainty and provides a comprehensive study of their impacts on the Thai economy. Based on a small open economy VAR, global uncertainty delivers deeper and more long-lasting effects when compared to within-country ones. In addition, we find that uncertainty shocks first generate sudden and large declines for stock prices and foreign portfolio investment, before gradually affecting the real economy through investment and trade channels. There is also meaningful heterogeneity among different types of domestic uncertainty. While financial uncertainty matters most for the Thai economy overall, consumption demand largely responds to macroeconomic uncertainty, while economic policy and political uncertainty generates the most persistent effects on investment. Furthermore, fiscal policy uncertainty is a key driver of trade flows while monetary policy uncertainty plays an important role for capital markets.We would like to thank Patcharaporn Leepipatpiboon and Chaitat Jirophat for excellent research assistance. We also appreciate insightful and constructive comments by two anonymous referees. The views expressed in this paper are of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Thailand.

This paper uses transaction-level data from Thailand to study concentration, specialization, and fragility of export activities. The paper shows that although exports have been an integral part of the development strategy of the country for several decades, direct engagement in international trade through exports is a rare activity. Export firms are different from their nonexport counterparts. Export activities are also extremely concentrated. There is a great deal of churning in Thai exports and exporting relationships are highly fragile. The findings highlight some cautions from a micro perspective about an export-oriented development strategy, particularly regarding concentration and vulnerability.

This paper uses transaction-level data from Thailand to study concentration, specialization, and fragility of export activities. The paper shows that although exports have been an integral part of the development strategy of the country for several decades, direct engagement in international trade through exports is a rare activity. Export firms are different from their nonexport counterparts. Export activities are also extremely concentrated. There is a great deal of churning in Thai exports and exporting relationships are highly fragile. The findings highlight some cautions from a micro perspective about an export-oriented development strategy, particularly regarding concentration and vulnerability.

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