The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and
The demand for information and understanding on natural hazard related risk on a global scale has grown in recent years. Such information is crucial for stakeholders who are working in the field of disaster risk reduction, spatial planning and (re-)insurance. This article provides a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allows the comparison of countries at global scale. The concept of the WorldRiskIndex focuses on the understanding of risk which is defined as the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using five indicators that describe the expsoure of people towards earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 23 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The method and the results of the WorldRiskIndex were validated by using statistical analysis such as reliability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of the WorldRiskIndex were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The global perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards.
The climate change and natural hazard communities have developed the notion of vulnerability and associated methods for its assessment in parallel, with only limited interaction. What are the underlying reasons for this diversity; is there advantage in greater synergy? If yes, what are the pathways through which greater integration could be fostered? This paper discusses these issues using vulnerability studies in coastal areas to describe gaps between climate change and natural hazard approaches, and investigates scope for mutual learning and collaboration in the development of methodologies for vulnerability assessment. An overview of methods highlights the separation between climate change and natural hazard approaches. The main differences identified, beyond formal divergences in terminology, are linked to: process (stress vs shock), scale (temporal, functional and spatial), assessment approach (statistical vs prospective) and levels of uncertainty. We argue that the underlying source of divergence is the initial difference of purpose, one being identification of climate change adaptation pathways, the other being disaster risk reduction. In this context, the notion of vulnerability and its expression through assessment studies is the focal point connecting both domains. Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of a social-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the construction and application of assessment tools.
Preventing and reducing loss and damage due to extreme events is an important topic for the international community, especially in the context of climate change negotiations and disaster risk reduction. The paper outlines the latest state-of-the-art approaches to assess loss and damage and the risk of loss and damage. Against this background, a more in-depth analysis is provided on how to assess the risk of loss and damage in different country groups (i.e., World Bank income groups) focusing on selected slow-and sudden-onset climate-related hazards using the concept of the WorldRiskIndex. The results underscore that the risks of loss and damage for low-and high-income countries are significantly different, but also that global risk patterns differ significantly regarding sudden-onset versus slow-onset hazards. In the first step of analysis, the results show that not only does exposure to extreme events influence the risk of loss and damage, but equally important are the vulnerability and adaptive capacities of societies. The second step of analysis shows that target-oriented adaptive strategies to the various impacts of climate-related hazards are crucial in reducing the respective risk of loss and damage.
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