Although the German economy managed the last economic recession comparatively well, it suffers from high and stagnating long-term unemployment and benefit receipt. This article is the first to study the duration and determinants of welfare benefit (“unemployment benefit II”) receipt in Germany as a whole, with special attention on duration dependence. The recipients of the means-tested household benefit are not necessarily registered as unemployed, but are, for example, employed with insufficient earnings, in training measures or economically inactive. Due to the heterogeneous situations of welfare recipients, separately studying welfare receipt and unemployment is necessary. By using exceptionally rich administrative data on a 1% random sample of welfare recipients from between 2005 and 2014, we estimate discrete-time hazard rate models that control for unobserved heterogeneity. The first benefit and unemployment episodes for first welfare recipients between 2006 and 2012 (n = 26,163) are traced monthly until 31 December 2014. Recipients leave unemployment more quickly than welfare. Sociodemographic characteristics, labour market resources and the duration seem to affect both processes. Household composition is less important for leaving unemployment than for leaving welfare. Overall, the results indicate that leaving unemployment and leaving welfare receipt are two different processes that need distinct policies.
This article contributes to the literature on persistent gender inequalities in the labour market by investigating gender role attitudes in Germany and their association with labour market behaviour. Based on the German Panel Study ‘Labour Market and Social Security’ (PASS), longitudinal analyses are applied to examine the influence of gender role attitudes and the household context on various employment states. The results reveal that gender role attitudes are crucial for labour market behaviour and that there are differences among women and men in different household contexts. Whereas single men and women do not differ significantly in their employment probabilities, women in couple households are less active in the labour market than their male counterparts. Furthermore, differences in employment are largest in couples with children. Among women, differences in full-time employment by household context become smaller when these women hold egalitarian attitudes.
Abstract. Marginal employment (ME) is one of the largest forms of atypical employment in Germany. We analyse whether ME has a 'stepping stone' function for unemployed individuals, i.e., whether ME increases the subsequent probability of regular employment. We find differing treatment effects by unemployment duration. According to our results, ME increases the likelihood of regular employment within a 3-year observation period only for those who take up ME several months after beginning to receive benefits. In contrast, for those starting ME within the first months of receiving benefits, there is no effect on the probability of regular employment. Although we took several measures to minimize the impact of unobserved heterogeneity, our results can only be interpreted as causal if the conditional independence assumption holds.
The Sample of Integrated Welfare Benefit Biographies (SIG) is a new administrative longitudinal microdata set representative of recipients of Germany’s main welfare programme, the Unemployment Benefit II (UB II, Arbeitslosengeld II). The data set contains detailed longitudinal information on welfare receipt and labour market activities, and hence enables researchers to analyse the dynamics of benefit receipt, income and employment. A distinct feature of the SIG is that it provides information not only for individual benefit recipients but also for family members, including children and partners. This is possible because eligibility for UB II benefits depends on the household structure, and it is means-tested on household income. In addition to socio-demographic and regional information, the SIG contains extensive information on the employment biographies of benefit recipients and their household members from the Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). This allows researchers to examine the interaction between labour market participation and benefit receipt. The SIG is available to researchers at the Research Data Centre (FDZ) of the Federal Employment Agency (BA) at the IAB.
This study contributes to the international literature on welfare dynamics, by providing a differentiated picture of paths through the means-tested Basic Income for recipients who are capable of working, after the reorganisation of the basic income system in Germany in 2005. We analyse the employment and benefit trajectories of individuals who became recipients for the first time between 2007 and 2009 by methods of sequence and cluster analysis based on representative administrative individual data. We find a significant polarisation between long-term recipients and those with an early exit from benefit receipt via full-time employment. One in three new recipients remains in benefit receipt for the next years and shows almost no employment activities. Approximately 23 percent leave benefit receipt quickly and work in full-time employment. Several other different paths exist between these two poles. These heterogeneous trajectories should be characteristic for broad basic income systems and require a variety of policies that in part are beyond labour market policies.
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