A b s t r a c t. The potential doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and associated changes in temperature and precipitation are crucial issues for agricultural productivity. The CROPGROSoybean model in decision support system for agro-technology transfer v4.5 to simulate soybean (Glycine max cv. Pioneer 93B15) grown in an elevated CO 2 environment was calibrated and validated. Crop growth and yield data were obtained from a series of experiments conducted in central Illinois at the soybean free air CO 2 enrichment facility from 2002 to 2006. The model was applied to simulate the possible impacts of climate change on soybean yield in the region for the future years of 2080-2100, centred on 2090. The model reproduced the measured soybean growth and yield well under ambient and elevated CO 2 conditions. For the period from 2081 to 2100, soybean yield was projected to decrease due to elevated temperature but to increase due to elevated precipitation and CO 2 concentration, achieving counterbalance. The adverse impacts of the warming conditions on soybean yield can be mitigated by late planting within an optimum planting range (day of year 145 to 152) as a management option, as well as by controlling genetic responses to thermal days in the reproductive stage.
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