The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions of hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayes models is investigated. A Bayesian predictive information criterion is proposed as an estimator of the posterior mean of the expected log likelihood of the predictive distribution when the specified family of probability distributions does not contain the true distribution. The proposed criterion is developed by correcting the asymptotic bias of the posterior mean of the log likelihood as an estimate of its expected log likelihood. The use of the bootstrap in model evaluation is also discussed. In this talk, we further evaluate the predictive distributions developed by the Bayesian model averaging approach.

Background and ObjectiveTranscranial low-level laser therapy (LLLT) using near-infrared light can efficiently penetrate through the scalp and skull and could allow non-invasive treatment for traumatic brain injury (TBI). In the present study, we compared the therapeutic effect using 810-nm wavelength laser light in continuous and pulsed wave modes in a mouse model of TBI.Study Design/Materials and MethodsTBI was induced by a controlled cortical-impact device and 4-hours post-TBI 1-group received a sham treatment and 3-groups received a single exposure to transcranial LLLT, either continuous wave or pulsed at 10-Hz or 100-Hz with a 50% duty cycle. An 810-nm Ga-Al-As diode laser delivered a spot with diameter of 1-cm onto the injured head with a power density of 50-mW/cm2 for 12-minutes giving a fluence of 36-J/cm2. Neurological severity score (NSS) and body weight were measured up to 4 weeks. Mice were sacrificed at 2, 15 and 28 days post-TBI and the lesion size was histologically analyzed. The quantity of ATP production in the brain tissue was determined immediately after laser irradiation. We examined the role of LLLT on the psychological state of the mice at 1 day and 4 weeks after TBI using tail suspension test and forced swim test.ResultsThe 810-nm laser pulsed at 10-Hz was the most effective judged by improvement in NSS and body weight although the other laser regimens were also effective. The brain lesion volume of mice treated with 10-Hz pulsed-laser irradiation was significantly lower than control group at 15-days and 4-weeks post-TBI. Moreover, we found an antidepressant effect of LLLT at 4-weeks as shown by forced swim and tail suspension tests.ConclusionThe therapeutic effect of LLLT for TBI with an 810-nm laser was more effective at 10-Hz pulse frequency than at CW and 100-Hz. This finding may provide a new insight into biological mechanisms of LLLT.

A protocol for the successful cultivation and validation of hPDL cells is proposed for clinical settings.

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