To understand the patterns and processes associated with the population dynamics of Balanus glandula during the early phase of invasion along the Pacific coast of eastern Hokkaido, population surveys were conducted from 2002 to 2011 at five shores, each consisting of five paired plots (scraped recruitment plot and unscraped establishment plot), along 49 km of coastline located 144 km east of the eastern front of the invasion of this species in 2000. Larval recruitment was first detected in 2004, but the establishment of a population was not observed until 2 years later at the westernmost shore of the study area. Occurrence increased from non-native barnacle present in 4 % of plots in 2006 to 100 % in 2011, but mean coverage remained low (\5 %) in 2011. Most local population coverage fluctuated without indicating clear temporal trends, but coverage in one plot showed a consistent pattern of rapid increase. Local extinctions occurred, but rates of local extinction decreased with time as larval recruitment increased. Lag times between recruitment and establishment occurred for 64 % of the paired plots and ranged from 1 to 4 years. Lag times decreased after 5 years, when larval recruitment increased. These findings suggest that the intensity of larval recruitment determined invasion dynamics during this early phase of the invasion, and the monitoring of recruitment is therefore essential for early detection of invasions by sessile marine organisms and prediction of their range expansion.