Background: When creating mechanistic mathematical models for biological signaling processes it is tempting to include as many known biochemical interactions into one large model as possible. For the JAK-STAT, MAP kinase, and NF-κB pathways a lot of biological insight is available, and as a consequence, large mathematical models have emerged. For large models the question arises whether unknown model parameters can uniquely be determined by parameter estimation from measured data. Systematic approaches to answering this question are indispensable since the uniqueness of model parameter values is essential for predictive mechanistic modeling.
Angiogenesis, the process by which new vessels form from existing ones, plays an important role in many developmental processes and pathological conditions. We study angiogenesis in the context of a highly controllable experimental environment: the cornea micropocket assay. Using a multidisciplinary approach that combines experiments, image processing and analysis, and mathematical modelling, we aim to provide mechanistic insight into the action of two angiogenic factors, vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF). We use image analysis techniques to extract quantitative data, which are both spatially and temporally resolved, from experimental images, and we develop a mathematical model, in which the corneal vasculature evolves in response to both VEGF-A and bFGF. The experimental data are used for model parametrization, while the mathematical model is used to assess the utility of the cornea micropocket assay and to characterize proposed synergies between VEGF-A and bFGF.
Tumour spheroids are widely used as an in vitro assay for characterising the dynamics and response to treatment of different cancer cell lines. Their popularity is largely due to the reproducible manner in which spheroids grow: the diffusion of nutrients and oxygen from the surrounding culture medium, and their consumption by tumour cells, causes proliferation to be localised at the spheroid boundary. As the spheroid grows, cells at the spheroid centre may become hypoxic and die, forming a necrotic core. The pressure created by the localisation of tumour cell proliferation and death generates an cellular flow of tumour cells from the spheroid rim towards its core. Experiments by Dorie et al. showed that this flow causes inert microspheres to infiltrate into tumour spheroids via advection from the spheroid surface, by adding microbeads to the surface of tumour spheroids and observing the distribution over time. We use an off-lattice hybrid agent-based model to reassess these experiments and establish the extent to which the spatio-temporal data generated by microspheres can be used to infer kinetic parameters associated with the tumour spheroids that they infiltrate. Variation in these parameters, such as the rate of tumour cell proliferation or sensitivity to hypoxia, can produce spheroids with similar bulk growth dynamics but differing internal compositions (the proportion of the tumour which is proliferating, hypoxic/quiescent and necrotic/nutrient-deficient). We use this model to show that the types of experiment conducted by Dorie et al. could be used to infer spheroid composition and parameters associated with tumour cell lines such as their sensitivity to hypoxia or average rate of proliferation, and note that these observations cannot be conducted within previous continuum models of microbead infiltration into tumour spheroids as they rely on resolving the trajectories of individual microbeads.
BackgroundModeling of biological pathways is a key issue in systems biology. When constructing a model, it is tempting to incorporate all known interactions of pathway species, which results in models with a large number of unknown parameters. Fortunately, unknown parameters need not necessarily be measured directly, but some parameter values can be estimated indirectly by fitting the model to experimental data. However, parameter fitting, or, more precisely, maximum likelihood parameter estimation, only provides valid results, if the complexity of the model is in balance with the amount and quality of the experimental data. If this is the case the model is said to be identifiable for the given data. If a model turns out to be unidentifiable, two steps can be taken. Either additional experiments need to be conducted, or the model has to be simplified.ResultsWe propose a systematic procedure for model simplification, which consists of the following steps: estimate the parameters of the model, create an identifiability ranking for the estimated parameters, and simplify the model based on the identifiability analysis results. These steps need to be applied iteratively until the resulting model is identifiable, or equivalently, until parameter variances are small. We choose parameter variances as stopping criterion, since they are concise and easy to interpret. For both, the parameter estimation and the calculation of parameter variances, multi-start parameter estimations are run on a parallel cluster. In contrast to related work in systems biology, we do not suggest simplifying a model by fixing some of its parameters, but change the structure of the model.ConclusionsWe apply the proposed approach to a model of early signaling events in the JAK-STAT pathway. The resulting model is not only identifiable with small parameter variances, but also shows the best trade-off between goodness of fit and model complexity.
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