Mechanisms for interpreting anomalous decreases in radon in ground water prior to earthquakes are examined with the help of a case study to show that radon potentially is a sensitive tracer of strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake. The 2003 Chengkung earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.8 on December 10, 2003, was the strongest earthquake near the Chengkung area in eastern Taiwan since 1951. The Antung radon-monitoring station was located 20 km from the epicenter. Approximately 65 d prior to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake, precursory changes in radon concentration in ground water were observed. Specifically, radon decreased from a background level of 780 pCi/L to a minimum of 330 pCi/L. The Antung hot spring is situated in a fractured block of tuffaceous sandstone surrounded by ductile mudstone. Given these geological conditions, we hypothesized that the dilation of brittle rock mass occurred at a rate faster than the recharge of pore water and gas saturation developed in newly created cracks preceding the earthquake. Radon partitioning into the gas phase may explain the anomalous decrease of radon precursory to the 2003 Chengkung earthquake. To support the hypothesis, vapor-liquid, two-phase radon-partitioning experiments were conducted at formation temperature (60°C) using formation brine from the Antung hot spring. Experimental data indicated that the decrease in radon required a gas saturation of 10% developed in rock cracks. The observed decline in radon can be correlated with the increase in gas saturation and then with the volumetric strain change for a given fracture porosity.

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Aseismic crustal-strain signals prior to the 2003 Mw 6.8 Chengkung, 2006 Mw 6.1 Taitung, and 2008 Mw 5.0 Antung earthquakes with epicenters located 20, 55 and 11 km, respectively, from the Antung radon-monitoring station have been calculated using the radon anomalies recorded. Specifically, radon decreased from background levels of 791 ± 46, 762 ± 57, and 735 ± 48 pCi/L to minima of 326 ± 9, 371 ± 9, and 480 ± 43 pCi/L prior to the 2003, 2006, and 2008 earthquakes, respectively. The estimated aseismic crustal-strain maxima at the Antung hot spring during the rock dilation stage were 3.6, 2.7, and 1.3 ppm, respectively. The v-shaped radon pattern recognized in all three anomalies is valuable for detecting the aseismic strain precursory to disastrous earthquakes in the Antung hot spring which is situated in a brittle fractured aquifer of limited recharge surrounded by ductile mudstone.

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