This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/48446/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the ABSTRACTAs evidenced through both a historical and contemporary number of reported over-runs, managing projects can be a risky business. Managers are faced with the need to effectively work with a multitude of parties and deal with a wealth of interlocking uncertainties. This paper describes a modelling process developed to assist managers facing such situations. The process helps managers to develop a comprehensive appreciation of risks and gain an understanding of the impact of the interactions between these risks through explicitly engaging a wide stakeholder base using a group support system and causal mapping process. Using a real case the paper describes the modelling process and outcomes along with its implications, before reflecting on the insights, limitations and future research.
Menthol has no effect on objective measures of flow but significantly increases the perception of nasal patency. It may not be possible to extrapolate these findings to younger children and those with rhinitis. Extending the study of menthol to these groups, including investigations of the efficacy and safety profiles, will provide further valuable evidence for its common use.
Kazakhstan's electricity generation depends heavily on fossil fuels. Renewables and other nonfossil resources provide potential alternatives to diversify the electricity generation system. In this paper, various potential local non-fossil fuel resources, hydro, solar, wind, biomass and uranium are reviewed and an assessment framework for prioritizing these resources is established. A multi-criteria decision making approach, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on expert opinion, is utilized for developing the assessment model, using four main criteria of technical, economic, social and environmental aspects and thirteen sub-criteria. The review reveal that Kazakhstan has ample potential to develop a non-fossil fuel based electricity system. Furthermore, the model shows hydro to be the most favorable resource followed by solar; wind and nuclear are ranked third and fourth, respectively while biomass is found to be the least attractive option. It is also found that each resource is inclined towards a particular criterion; hydro towards social, solar towards economic, nuclear towards technical, with biomass and wind directed towards environmental. Besides reporting the use of the AHP model for the first time in the Kazakhstan context, the assessment carried out in this paper can assist decision-makers to articulate long-term energy policy for any country.
9It has been argued that increasing transmission network capacity is vital to ensuring 10 the full utilisation of renewables in Europe. The significant wind generation capacity 11 proposed for the North Sea combined with high penetrations of other intermittent 12 renewables across Europe has raised interest in different approaches to connecting 13 offshore wind that might increase also interconnectivity between regions in a cost 14 effective way. These analyses to assess a number of putative North Sea networks 15 confirm that greater interconnection capacity between regions increases the 16 utilisation of offshore wind energy, reducing curtailed wind energy by up to 9TWh 17 in 2030 based on 61GW of installed capacity, and facilitating a reduction in annual 18 generation costs of more than €0.5bn. However, at 2013 fuel and carbon prices, such 19 additional network capacity allows cheaper high carbon generation to displace more 20 expensive lower carbon plant, increasing coal generation by as much as 24TWh and 21 thereby increasing CO 2 emissions. The results are sensitive to the generation "merit 22 • Carbon price is potentially a powerful driver of benefits from network 33 development 34 • The costs and benefits of a multi-terminal HVDC grid are likely to be highly 35 sensitive to the future cost of DC circuit breakers 36 Keywords: renewable energy, carbon emissions, carbon pricing, electricity 37 transmission, offshore wind energy, cost benefit analysis 38 42 wind capacity is planned continent-wide (Moccia et al 2011). This is set against a 43 backdrop of the planned closure of up to 55GW of nuclear plant (World Nuclear 44Association, 2013). If these changes occur, they will have profound implications for 45 the European electricity transmission system as the centres of production shift and 46 the characteristics of the generation fleet change. As a consequence, upgrades to 47 grid capacity, whether offshore or onshore, have often been described as essential to 48 facilitating renewable energy (European Parliament, 2012) and, hence, to reducing 49 carbon emissions associated with production and use of electrical energy. Moreover, 50 new transmission capacity, it is argued, would ensure security of supply and optimal 51 use of generation assets across Europe. However, expanding transmission capacity is 52 costly and environmental concerns mean that the number and routing of new 53 transmission lines must take account of the need to maximise utilisation and 54 minimise environmental impact. These principles hold both onshore and offshore, 55 where the demand to install both more interconnection capacity between regions and 56 to connect offshore wind farms to shore would see a proliferation of cables on the 57 seabed and of cable landings at, often sensitive, coastal locations. 58 Until now, most offshore wind farms have been located close to shore and each has 59 been connected directly to a substation within the onshore grid via high voltage 60 alternating current (HVAC) transmission cables. As...
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