BackgroundThe recently proposed nomogram of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) lacks predictive accuracy for patients with stage D hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Tumor burden is crucial in prognostic prediction but is not included in the criteria of stage D HCC. This study aims to develop a nomogram with tumor burden as the core element for BCLC stage D patients.MethodsA total of 386 patients were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets (1:1 ratio). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to select factors with significant prognostic effect and generate the nomogram. Concordance indices and calibration plots were used to evaluate the performance of nomogram.ResultsOverall survival of study patients was significantly associated with tumor burden as well as hepatitis B, serum α-fetoprotein level, cirrhosis and performance status in multivariate Cox regression (all p<0.05). Beta-coefficients of these variables in derivation set were used to generate the nomogram. Each patient was assigned with a total nomogram point that predicted individualized 6-month and 1-year survival. The derivation and validation sets had a c-index of 0.759 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.552–0.923) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.529–0.913), respectively. The calibration plots were close to the 45-degree line for 6-month and 1-year survival prediction for all quarters of patients in both derivation and validation sets.ConclusionTumor burden is significantly associated with the outcome for patients with stage D HCC. The tumor burden-incorporated nomogram may serve as a feasible and easy-to-use tool in predicting survival on an individual level.

Patients with non-metastatic esophageal cancer routinely undergo endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for loco-regional staging. Neoadjuvant therapy is recommended for ≥T3 tumors while upfront surgery can be considered for ≤T2 lesions. The aim of this study was to determine if the degree of dysphagia can predict the EUS T-stage of esophageal cancer. One hundred eleven consecutive patients with non-metastatic esophageal cancer were retrospectively reviewed from a database. Prior to EUS, patients' dysphagia grade was recorded. Correlation between dysphagia grade and EUS T-stage, especially in reference to predicting ≥T3 stage, was determined. The correlation of dysphagia grade with EUS T-stage (Kendall's tau coefficient) was 0.49 (P < 0.001) for the lower and 0.59 (P = 0.008) for the middle esophagus. The sensitivity and specificity of dysphagia grade ≥2 (can only swallow semi-solids/liquids) for T3 cancer were 56% (95% confidence interval [CI] 43-67%) and 93% (95% CI 79-98%), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of dysphagia grade ≥3 (can only swallow liquids or total dysphagia) for T3 lesions were 36% (95% CI 25-48%), 100% (95% CI 89-100%), and 100% (95% CI 83-100%), respectively. Overall, there was a significant positive correlation between dysphagia grade and the EUS T-stage of esophageal cancer. All patients with dysphagia grade ≥3 had T3 lesions. This may have clinical implications for patients who can only swallow liquids or have complete dysphagia by allowing for prompt initiation of neoadjuvant therapy, especially in countries/centers where EUS service is difficult to access in a timely manner or not available.

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