Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

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The eradication of invasive species from islands yields significant conservation returns. However, novel challenges continue to arise as projects expand in their scope, complexity and scale. Prey‐loss and secondary poisoning were historically considered to have limited impact on native top‐order predators when planning eradications, but this has rarely been tested quantitatively. We used a 10‐year timeseries of Brown Skua Stercorarius antarcticus lonnbergi breeding surveys and isotopic dietary analysis on Macquarie Island to investigate how prey‐loss and secondary poisoning deaths resulting from the eradication of an abundant invasive prey species, European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, affected a top‐order predator. Skua nest density declined from 7.14 nests/km2 (95% CI: 6.01–8.27) in the presence of rabbits (pre‐eradication) to 3.73 nests/km2 (95% CI: 2.96–4.51) in the first 3 years after the eradication of rabbits, before showing signs of recovery in the 4 years thereafter. However, breeding success dropped from 1.01 chicks/nest (95% CI: 0.76–1.26) to as low as 0.38 chicks/nest (95% CI: 0.23–0.53) with little evidence of recovery. Secondary poisoning affected a greater number of skuas than anticipated prior to the eradication, including skuas nesting in areas where rabbits were not typically hunted as prey. We highlight that invasive prey often replace native prey in the diet of native predators rather than provide an additional source of food, and rapid eradication of non‐native prey can have long‐term impacts for predators, particularly when recovery of native prey is slow. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring programmes that complement large‐scale eradication projects and address (a) trophic‐driven declines in predator populations and (b) population‐level impacts of secondary poisoning are integral to ensuring bottom‐up effects of eradications are anticipated and adequately quantified. If prey deficits caused by eradication of invasive prey are expected to be severe but short‐lived, supplementary feeding programmes may buffer against increased predation pressure on native prey and reduced breeding success of native predators. Alternatively, if the rapid recovery of native prey is not expected to occur naturally, breeding programmes and translocation of native prey prior to assist recovery of native predators should be considered to support ecosystem restoration.

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Occurrences of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in the waters surrounding Sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island have been recorded since the 1820s, however only became the focus of scientific research in the mid-1990s. The analyses of sightings data collected from the island between 1986 and 2015 are presented herein. The study provides evidence of a relationship between killer whale sighting probability and seasonal prey availability. Killer whales were present at the island year-round with a distinct seasonal peak in November-December, and coincident with a peak in occurrence of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) due to breeding season activity, particularly the dispersal of weaned pups. Supporting this association and killer whales' top-down influence on the survival of juvenile and adult southern elephant seals, pinnipeds accounted for 79% of prey identified, with weaned southern elephant seal pups contributing over a quarter of feeding events observed in the near-shore environment. Fur seals and penguins were also identified as prey. Killer whale groups had a median group size of three individuals, and groups of three to five individuals were most often observed feeding/milling in near-shore waters. The largest range in group sizes were observed during their peak occurrence in early summer, particularly in the number of sub-adult and female whales per group. Adult males made up 75% of single occurrences, and singletons were most often observed travelling. Overall, the ecology of killer whales at Macquarie Island was similar to that of killer whales studied at other Sub-Antarctic locations, with comparable seasonality, behaviour, diet, and group structure. Much remains to be learnt regarding the seasonal movements of whales and their diet at other times of year, their relationship to killer whales sighted in coastal Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic ecosystems, and impact on diet from commercial fisheries operations and fluctuating prey populations.

Maximising survey efficiency can help reduce the tradeoff between spending limited conservation resources on identifying population changes and responding to those changes through management. Burrow-nesting seabirds are particularly challenging to survey because nests cannot be counted directly. We evaluated a stratified random survey design for generating unbiased population estimates simultaneously for four petrel species nesting on Macquarie Island, Australia, where the survey cue, burrow entrances, is similar for all species. We also compared the use of design-based and model-based analyses for minimising uncertainty in estimates. We recorded 2845 Antarctic prion burrows, 306 white-headed petrel burrows and two blue petrel burrows while distance-sampling along 154 km of transects. For blue petrels and grey petrels, we completed nocturnal searches along a further 71 km and searched 249 km of tracks during follow-up ground searches. We failed to generate unbiased population estimates for two rare and localised species, blue and grey petrels, from our stratified random survey. Only for the most widespread and abundant species, Antarctic prion, did the estimate have reasonable power to detect a rapid population change. Modelbased analyses of the stratified random survey data did not improve upon traditional design-based analyses in terms of uncertainty in population estimates, but they did provide useful spatial representation of current populations. Models that used the targeted survey data did not reflect current population sizes and distributions of the two rare and localised species. We found that when species ecologies, distributions and abundances vary, a multi-method approach to surveys is needed. Species with low abundance that occur patchily across large islands are likely to be best estimated using targeted surveys, whereas widespread and abundant species can be accurately and precisely estimated from randomised surveys using informative model-based analyses.

Sleeper populations of non-native species can remain at low abundance for decades before irrupting. For over a century, fallow deer ( Dama dama ) in the island state of Tasmania, Australia, remained at low abundance and close to the region in which they were released. Recently, there are indications the population has increased in abundance and distribution. Here, we spatially quantify the population change using a time series of annual spotlight counts from 1985 to 2019 (total of 5,761 counts). Next, we predict the potential for further range expansion, using global occurrences to characterise the species’ climatic niche, and remote-camera surveys (n = 3,225) to model fine-grained habitat suitability. Spotlight counts of fallow deer increased by 11.5% annually, resulting in a 40-fold increase from 1985 to 2019. The core distribution increased 2.9-fold during this 35-year period, and now spans c. 27% of Tasmania’s land area. Satellite populations have established in locations where farmed deer have escaped or been released, suggesting that humans have facilitated some of the range expansion via new introduction events. Based on climate and habitat suitability, our models predict that 56% of Tasmania is suitable under the current climate. This suggests range expansion is likely to continue unless the population is actively managed, which could include the eradication of satellite populations and containment of core populations. This case study cautions that despite over a century of slow population growth, sleeper populations of non-native species can abruptly increase.

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