Understanding the vulnerability of tree species to anthropogenic threats is important for the efficient planning of restoration and conservation efforts. We quantified and compared the effects of future climate change and four current threats (fire, habitat conversion, overgrazing and overexploitation) on the 50 most common tree species of the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru and southern Ecuador. We used an ensemble modelling approach to predict species distribution ranges, employed freely accessible spatial datasets to map threat exposures, and developed a trait-based scoring approach to estimate species-specific sensitivities, using differentiated trait weights in accordance with their expected importance in determining species sensitivities to specific threats. Species-specific vulnerability maps were constructed from the product of the exposure maps and the sensitivity estimates. We found that all 50 species face considerable threats, with an average of 46% of species' distribution ranges displaying high or very high vulnerability to at least one of the five threats. Our results suggest that current levels of habitat conversion, overexploitation and overgrazing pose larger threats to most of the studied species than climate change. We present a spatially explicit planning strategy for species-specific restoration and conservation actions, proposing management interventions to focus on (a) in situ conservation of tree populations and seed collection for tree planting activities in areas with low vulnerability to climate change and current threats; (b) ex situ conservation or translocation of populations in areas with high climate change vulnerability; and (c) active planting or assisted regeneration in areas under high current threat vulnerability but low climate change vulnerability, provided that interventions are in place to lower threat pressure. We provide an online, user-friendly tool to visualize both the vulnerability maps and the maps indicating priority restoration and conservation actions. K E Y W O R D S functional traits, multithreat vulnerability, restoration and conservation planning, sensitivity, tropical dry forest FREMOUT ET al. | 3553Vulnerability
At the start of the UN Decade of Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030), the restoration of degraded ecosystems is more than ever a global priority. Tree planting will make up a large share of the ambitious restoration commitments made by countries around the world, but careful planning is needed to select species and seed sources that are suitably adapted to present and future restoration site conditions and that meet the restoration objectives. Here we present a scalable and freely available online tool, Diversity for Restoration (D4R), to identify suitable tree species and seed sources for climate‐resilient tropical forest landscape restoration. The D4R tool integrates (a) species habitat suitability maps under current and future climatic conditions; (b) analysis of functional trait data, local ecological knowledge and other species characteristics to score how well species match the restoration site conditions and restoration objectives; (c) optimization of species combinations and abundances considering functional trait diversity or phylogenetic diversity, to foster complementarity between species and to ensure ecosystem multifunctionality and stability; and (d) development of seed zone maps to guide sourcing of planting material adapted to present and predicted future environmental conditions. We outline the various elements behind the tool and discuss how it fits within the broader restoration planning process, including a review of other existing tools. Synthesis and applications. The Diversity for Restoration tool enables non‐expert users to combine species traits, environmental data and climate change models to select tree species and seed sources that best match restoration site conditions and restoration objectives. Originally developed for the tropical dry forests of Colombia, the tool has now been expanded to the tropical dry forests of northwestern Peru–southern Ecuador and the countries of Burkina Faso and Cameroon, and further expansion is underway. Acknowledging that restoration has a wide range of meanings and goals, our tool is intended to support decision making of anyone interested in tree planting and seed sourcing in tropical forest landscapes, regardless of the purpose or restoration approach.
Vanilla, an expensive but popular spice used in many industries, faces problems related to its supply. Some of these problems are due to the fact that vanilla cultivation is based on clonal material of a single species (Vanilla planifolia) and is dominated by just a few countries located outside the native growing areas of aromatic vanilla species, which is the neotropics. Despite the economic importance of this crop, relatively little attention has been paid to its wild relatives, in particular with respect to their biology, ecology, and potential use. We hypothesized that species distribution models (SDMs) can identify suitable areas for both the conservation and cultivation of vanilla crop wild relatives (CWRs), following a joint land sparing/land sharing (SPASHA) approach, thus offering alternative sourcing areas and production methods. This is the first study that explored the use of ensemble SDMs to provide applicable land use maps related to the conservation and sustainable cultivation of wild vanilla species in Costa Rica, contributing to a solution for the problems related to current vanilla production systems. We focused on four aromatic vanilla CWRs, native to Costa Rica, to make land use policy recommendations for this country, and more specifically for the biological corridor Osa and its surroundings within our study region Area de Conservaci on Osa (ACOSA). The resulting distribution maps, with a mean AUC of 0.89, reflected their current potential distribution (ranging from unsuitable to suitable) in Costa Rica. Combining them with recent land use and conservation area maps of our study region, we defined (1) areas for vanilla conservation and (2) areas for sustainable vanilla cultivation within agroforestry systems. These land use recommendations can now be integrated within the National Bio-Corridor Program (PNCB) that aims at making biological corridors more productive by proposing alternative income generation for local communities living within these areas. Our approach can be applied to identify priority areas for implementing the SPASHA approach on other vanilla CWRs and in more regions across its native growing ranges, given the availability of land use maps and enough occurrence records to build accurate SDMs.
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