Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada triwulan I 2015 mengalami perlambatan, namun stabilitas makroekonomi dan sistem keuangan tetap terjaga. Perlambatan ekonomi bersumber dari melambatnya kinerja beberapa komponen permintaan domestik, seperti konsumsi pemerintah dan investasi bangunan. Sementara di sisi ekternal, ekspor masih melemah. Di sisi lain, stabilitas makroekonomi masih terjaga yang ditunjukkan dengan defisit transaksi berjalan yang menurun dan inflasi yang terkendali. Sementara itu, nilai tukar relatif terkendali meskipun mengalami tekanan.
The growth of Indonesian economy on Quarter II, 2016 increased with a well-maintained financial system and macroeconomic stability. Though the growth was not uniform across sectors, the aggregate growth has increased during this quarter, supported by domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, along with monetary policy ease. On the other hand, the macroeconomic stability was well preserved as reflected on inflation within the band target, a better current account deficit, and relatively stable Rupiah’s rate. This stable macroeconomic condition enabled the monetary authority to ease their policy. In the future, the policy coordination between the fiscal and the monetary authority is required, particularly on accelerating the implementation of structural reform, to support a sustainable economic growth.
This paper provides current analysis of the ongoing quarter, and brief outlook on the forthcoming quarter. We use a field survey along with estimation of macroeconomic models to provide the assessment and to make some projections on the monetary, the banking, and the payment system in Indonesia. This paper confirms the slowdown of the Indonesian economy during quarter two 2015 due to the slowing investment and the government expenditure, and the weak export performance. With the fiscal stimulus launched by the government, we expect to see an improvement in next two quarters. The lower current account deficit and manageable inflation will help to maintain the macroeconomic stability; however, the high global uncertainty will put depreciation pressure on Rupiah.
The growth of domestic economy in Indonesia is lower than forecasted in first quarter of 2016.However, the economy is expected to revive and will grow higher in the next quarter, with a well maintained financial system stability. The limited growth of government consumption as well as private investment are the main reason for the slower growth in this quarter, eventhough the government spending on capital goods accelerates. The growth of private consumption remains high with reasonable price movement. With the increase of several commodities’ export, the external performance of export in aggregate also increased. On the other hand, the financial system stability was stable due to viable banking system and better financial market performance. The stability of Rupiah was well maintained, supported by positive expectation on domestic economy and the lower risk of the global financial market.
The growth of Indonesian economy on Quarter III, 2016 recorded positive growth with a wellmaintained financial system and macroeconomic stability. The economy grew moderately supported by remaining strong domestic demand amidst the slow recovery of the global economy. The economic stability is also good reflected on the low inflation, decreasing current account deficit, and relatively stable exchange rate. An increase of domestic economy and lower global financial risk enable monetary ease on Quarter III, 2016. Furthermore, the reduction of interest rate policy is well transmitted and is expected to strengthen the growth momentum of the economy. Looking forward, Bank Indonesia will keep strengthening his policy mix and macroprudential, and his coordination with the government to ensure the inflation control, greater stimulus for growth, and the implementation of structural reform run on the right track, and hence preserve the sustainable economic development.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.