Surabaya Metropolitan Area (SMA) comprising Gerbangkertosusila Region in East Java is the prime driver for the regional economic activity at the provincial and national scales. However, increasing regional economic growth has insignificantly contributed to environmental sustainability as shown by the ecological deficit. A suitable scenario should be formulated within this region during sustainability development. In general, carrying capacity is closely related to resource usage limits of people in a particular area. This study aimed to examine several scenarios using the dynamic systems method of ecological footprint approach analysis to formulate a strategy for environmental sustainability within SMA. An ecological footprint approach was used to identify natural resource consumption components and resource availability for each land use.
East Java province with high mobility has a high case fatality rate of COVID-19. The core spread of COVID-19 is from the Greater Surabaya area following Surabaya, Sidoarjo, and Gresik districts. The East Java Government through Regulation No.18/2020 imposed a Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) that is intended to support the effectiveness of the physical distancing strategy in addressing the emergency status of the COVID-19. But no official report has been found on the effectiveness of PSBB. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of PSBB, especially in Greater Surabaya. This research aims to know the model of PSBB policy to minimize the spread of COVID-19 in the greater Surabaya. The study focused on health facility (ventilator, ICU, non-ICU), population, case over a certain period, and positive case in care. This study analyzes the distribution pattern and models the effectiveness of PSBB against the spread of COVID-19 in Greater Surabaya. The data analysis used the COVID-19 Surge-CDC Model. The result of the research shows that the condition of COVID-19 cases increased significantly in the model without intervention. The sharp increase in cases is related to the anticipation of other policies related to the ability of regions to provide health facilities.
The COVID-19 pandemic influences human health and activities in many regions in Indonesia. East Java is an area with high community interaction, and mobility is one of the provinces that implements a regional restriction policy. The people mobility among regions makes it necessary to control the people interaction during the pandemic. The regional restriction strategy is one way to reduce and avoid the spread of COVID-19 in the Surabaya Metropolitan Area (Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo). This study aims to assess the COVID-19 control policy based on the interaction of activities between regions. The analysis uses a projected model of the spread of COVID-19 and a spatial interaction model based on the spread pattern of COVID-19 in the Surabaya Metropolitan Area. The research variables consisted of the health facilities, population, case data in a certain period, positive case data, patient treatment, and road network. The data were analyzed using the SurgeCDC Model and the Gravity Model furthermore. The results of the study provide the effectiveness of the policies to be carried out, predictions of the end of the pandemic in an area, descriptions of cases when using policy interventions, and conditions of spatial interaction. There needs to be an anticipation of the demand for health facilities such as medical personnel, medicine, and care rooms.
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