A new lignin-first biorefinery with a reductive catalytic fractionation process, which targets the valorization of the lignin and the carbohydrate fraction into higher value end-products, is currently being designed. To identify the various R&D drivers for projects with a low technology readiness level (TRL), we developed an integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) that directly integrates the results of lab studies with economic costs and benefits. Furthermore, different linkages are made to upstream wood availability and downstream demand to understand its fit into existing wood value chains. By making the relations across the wood value chain explicit within the integrated TEA, we find that the scale of the plant, the feedstock-specific output quantities, and output prices highly determine the economic feasibility. Furthermore, this detailed analysis reveals the importance of assessing different types of feedstock. If only virgin wood is available as feedstock, minimum capacity levels between 190 and 234 kilotons per year are needed for the investment to be profitable. Waste wood proves to be the most profitable feedstock with an NPV of MV 59 and an IRR of 26%. Using only waste wood as feedstock makes the investment profitable at a lower capacity level of 80 kilotons per year and economic shocks can be absorbed. Based on these results we show that an integrated and detailed TEA is indispensable to define future development paths for early-stage, innovative technologies.

Although CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered a key solution for CO2 emission mitigation, it is currently not economically feasible. CO2 enhanced oil recovery can play a significant role in stimulating CCS deployment because CO2 is used to extract additional quantities of oil. This study analyzes the investment decision of both a carbon emitting source and an oil company separately by adopting a real options approach. It is shown that when uncertainty is integrated in the economic analysis, CO2 and oil price threshold levels at which investments in CO2 capture and enhanced oil recovery will take place, are higher than when a net present value approach is adopted. We also demonstrate that a tax on CO2 instead of an emission trading system results in a lower investment threshold level for the investment in the CO2 capture unit. Furthermore, we determine a minimum CO2 selling price between the two firms and show that CO2-EOR has the potential to pull CCS into the market by providing an additional revenue on the capture plant. However, when CO2 permit prices are above an identifiable level, the EU ETS does not necessarily result in the adoption of CCS but stimulates oil production.

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h i g h l i g h t sPSS IV, a techno-economic model for simulating CO 2 -EOR projects, is presented. Investment risk and uncertainty play a central role in our methodology. A North Sea case study for the Claymore and Scott field is developed. Case study results show a 30% value increase for the cluster approach.

Megaprojects are complex and contain multiple risks and uncertainties. The dominant 'predict and control' planning method mainly ignores risks and uncertainties, making megaprojects inflexible and vulnerable to unforeseen changes. Insights and methods from real options theory (ROT) in economics and finance have the potential to improve planning of megaprojects in three ways: (a) better management and assessment of risks and uncertainties, (b) a more transparent and explicit identification and communication of risks and uncertainties, and (c) a monetary valuation of flexibility. An in-depth literature review of 42 papers of real options applications to megaprojects serves as a benchmark to analyse if current real options literature meets these three expectations. Through this review, we identify the main trends, relevance and research gaps. While its theoretical relevance is illustrated, three main gaps impede real options' practical relevance for megaprojects: the applications paint an incomplete picture of megaprojects; its mathematical complexity; and the lack of empirical evidence of real-life cases. Based on a plea for more interactive research between scholars and planning practitioners, we provide an agenda for further research as to how ROT can better meet its expectations and fulfill its potential for the planning of megaprojects.

a b s t r a c tTo counter global warming, a transition to a low-carbon economy is needed. The greenhouse sector can contribute by installing Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems, known for their excellent energy efficiency. Due to the recent European liberalization of the energy market, glass horticulturists have the opportunity to sell excess electricity to the market and by tailored policy and support measures, regional governments can fill the lack of technical and economic knowledge, causing initial resistance. This research investigates the economic and environmental opportunities using two detailed cases applying a self managed cogeneration system. The Net Present Value is calculated to investigate the economic feasibility. The Primary Energy Saving, the CO 2 Emission Reduction indicator and an Emission Balance are applied to quantify the environmental impact. The results demonstrate that a self-managed CHP system is economic viable and that CO 2 emissions are reduced.

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This paper considers investment problems in real options with non-homogeneous two-factor uncertainty. We derive some analytical properties of the resulting optimal stopping problem and present a finite difference algorithm to approximate the firm’s value function and optimal exercise boundary. An important message in our paper is that the frequently applied quasi-analytical approach underestimates the impact of uncertainty. This is caused by the fact that the quasi-analytical solution does not satisfy the partial differential equation that governs the value function. As a result, the quasi-analytical approach may wrongly advise to invest in a substantial part of the state space.