Knowing the stand age of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations is vitally important for best management practices, estimations of rubber latex yields, and carbon cycle studies (e.g., biomass, carbon pools, and fluxes). However, the stand age (as estimated from the establishment year of rubber plantation) is not available across large regions. In this study, we analyzed Landsat time series images from 1987–2015 and developed algorithms to identify (1) the establishment year of rubber plantations; and (2) the pre-conversion land cover types, such as old rubber plantations, evergreen forests, and cropland. Exposed soil during plantation establishment and linear increases in canopy closure during non-production periods (rubber seedling to mature plantation) were used to identify the establishment year of rubber plantations. Based on the rubber plantation map for 2015 (overall accuracy = 97%), and 1981 Landsat images since 1987, we mapped the establishment year of rubber plantations on Hainan Island (R2 = 0.85/0.99, and RMSE = 2.34/0.54 years at pixel/plantation scale). The results show that: (1) significant conversion of croplands and old rubber plantations to new rubber plantations has occurred substantially in the northwest and northern regions of Hainan Island since 2000, while old rubber plantations were mainly distributed in the southeastern inland strip; (2) the pattern of rubber plantation expansion since 1987 consisted of fragmented plantations from smallholders, and there was no tendency to expand towards a higher altitude and steep slope regions; (3) the largest land source for new rubber plantations since 1988 was old rubber plantations (1.26 × 105 ha), followed by cropland (0.95 × 105 ha), and evergreen forests (0.68 × 105 ha). The resultant algorithms and maps of establishment year and pre-conversion land cover types are likely to be useful in plantation management, and ecological assessments of rubber plantation expansion in China.
Rubber (Hevea brasiliensis Muell.) plantations constitute one of the most important agro-ecosystems in the tropical region of China and Southeast Asia, playing an important role in the carbon budget there. Accurately obtaining their biomass over a large area is challenging because of difficulties in acquiring the Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) through remote sensing and the problem of biomass saturation. The stand age, which is closely related to the forest biomass, was proposed for biomass estimation in this study. A stand age map at an annual scale for Hainan Island, which is the second largest natural rubber production base in China, was generated using all Landsat and Sentinel-2 (LS2) data (1987–2017). Scatter plots and the correlation coefficient method were used to explore the relationship (e.g., biomass saturation) between rubber biomass and different LS2-based variables. Subsequently, a regression model fitted with the stand age (R2 = 0.96) and a Random Forest (RF) model parameterizing with LS2-based variables and/or the stand age were respectively employed to estimate rubber biomass for Hainan Island. The results show that rubber biomass was saturated around 65 Mg/ha with all LS2-based variables. The regression model estimated biomass accurately (R2 = 0.79 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 14.00 Mg/ha) and eliminated the saturation problem significantly. In addition to LS2-based variables, adding a stand age parameter to the RF models was found to significantly improve the prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.82–0.96 and RMSE = 4.08–10.59 Mg/ha, modeling using samples of different biomass sizes). However, all RF models overestimated the biomass of young plantations and underestimated the biomass of old plantations. A hybrid model integrating the optimal results of RF and regression models reduced estimation bias and generated the best performance (R2 = 0.83 and RMSE = 12.48 Mg/ha). The total rubber biomass of Hainan Island in 2017 was about 5.40 × 107 Mg. The northward and westward expansions after 2000 had great impact on the biomass distribution, leading to a higher biomass density for the inland coastal strip from south to northeast and a lower biomass density in the northern and western regions.
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