The extent of publishing in predatory journals in economics is examined in this paper. A simple model of researcher behavior is presented to explore those factors motivating an economist or other academic to publish in predatory journals as defined by Beall (2015). Beall's lists are then employed to identify predatory journals and publishers included in the Research Papers in Economics (RePEc) archives. Once identified, the affiliations of authors publishing in these outlets are determined in order to identify the characteristics of those publishing in such outlets. The geographic dispersion of authorship is widespread. A very small subset of authors is registered on RePEc. Slightly more than forty percent of registered authors who publish in predatory journals in the data set have six or fewer publications, and hence might be considered inexperienced. A surprising number of authors who are in the RePEc top 5% also published in predatory journals in 2015.
In an influential article, "Unraveling in Matching Markets," Li and Rosen (1998) note the first seven picks, and 17 among 29 first round selections of the 1997 NBA draft, were not college seniors. In 2004, the first pick in the NBA draft was a high school senior, and 25 of the first 29 picks were not college seniors. Li and Rosen (1998) suggest early entry is a form of unraveling in a labor market as firms attempt to secure the most promising player. We suggest recent NBA contract provisions implemented to slow the early entry of talented players have instead provided additional incentives to both players and firms for early entry into the NBA. In particular, the lowering of the fixed wage contract and lengthening of rookie contracts have given firms limited monopsonistic power and the ability to capture economic rents. We explore two competing models that predict why teams choose a talented player sooner under the new rookie contract system. The first model is the traditional human capital model, and the second is the Lazear (1995) option value model. To test why unraveling occurs, we use a panel study of all NBA players for 12 years from 1989 through 2002. The data include individual player performance statistics on a season-to-season basis, salary, and draft number.3
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