Abstract. We describe new reconstructions of northern extratropical summer temperatures for nine subcontinental-scale regions and a composite series representing quasi "Northern Hemisphere" temperature change over the last 600 years. These series are based on tree ring density data that have been processed using a novel statistical technique (age band decomposition) designed to preserve greater long-timescale variability than in previous analyses. We provide time-dependent and timescale-dependent uncertainty estimates for all of the reconstructions. The new regional estimates are generally cooler in almost all precalibration periods, compared to estimates obtained using earlier processing methods, particularly during the 17th century. One exception is the reconstruction for northern Siberia, where 15th century summers are now estimated to be warmer than those observed in the 20th century. In producing a new Northern Hemisphere series we demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to the methodology used once the number of regions with data, and the reliability of each regional series, begins to decrease. We compare our new hemisphere series to other published large-regional temperature histories, most of which lie within the 1 • confidence band of our estimates over most of the last 600 years. The 20th century is clearly shown by all of the palaeoseries composites to be the warmest during this period.
Abstract. We develop methods for adjusting grid box average temperature time series for the effects on variance of changing numbers of contributing data. Owing to the different sampling characteristics of the data, we use different techniques over land and ocean. The result is to damp average temperature anomalies over a grid box by an amount inversely related to the number of contributing stations or observations. Variance corrections influence all grid box time series but have their greatest effects over data sparse oceanic regions. After adjustment, the grid box land and ocean surface temperature data sets are unaffected by artificial variance changes which might affect, in particular, the results of analyses of the incidence of extreme values. We combine the adjusted land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature data sets and apply a limited spatial interpolation. The effects of our procedures on hemispheric and global temperature anomaly series are small.
The purpose of this short paper is to provide background information about the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as context for the other papers in this issue of Weather that focus on seasonal forecasts of UK and European winter climate, for which variations in the NAO are especially important.
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