We estimate underlying structural macroeconomic policy objectives of three of the earliest explicit inflation targeters within the context of a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume central banks set policy optimally, such that we can reverse engineer policy objectives from observed time series data. Joint tests of the posterior distributions of these policy preference parameters suggest that the central banks are very similar in their overall objective. None of the central banks show a concern for stabilizing the real exchange rate. All three central banks share a concern for minimizing the volatility in the change in the nominal interest rate. We also show that the resulting optimal policy rule responds to exchange rate movements, even in the case where the central banks do not explicitly care about exchange rate stabilization. This result is also corroborated by results from an alternative simple-rule characterization and estimation of central bank behavior. These last two findings point to the pitfalls of making inferences, from the level of "ad hoc" simple rules, about what central banks may care about. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

We explore how outcomes of optimal monetary policy with loose commitment (Schaumburg and Tambalotti, 2007; Debortoli and Nunes, 2010) with the non-reoptimization probability of α can be interpretable as outcomes of deeper optimal policy under sustainable plans (Chari and Kehoe, 1990) with N-period punishment. In a standard monetary-policy framework, we show that, for any sufficiently high value of α, there exists an integer N such that impulse responses to the cost-push shock under each policy are similar to each other.

We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and their implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider a two-country environment with two currencies that can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed cost and the decision to counterfeit is private information. This induces equilibrium liquidity constraints on the currencies in circulation. We show that the threat of counterfeiting can pin down the nominal exchange rate even when the currencies are perfect substitutes, thus breaking the famous Kareken-Wallace indeterminacy result. (JEL D82, E42, F31)

We explore how the informational frictions underlying monetary exchange affect international exchange rate dynamics. Our perfectly flexible price model is capable of producing endogenously rigid international relative prices in response to technology and monetary shocks. The model is capable of accounting for the empirical regularities that the real and nominal exchange rates are more volatile than U.S. output, and that the two are positively and perfectly correlated. The model is also consistent with other standard real business cycle facts for the U.S.