PurposeRobust biomarkers that predict disease outcomes amongst COVID-19 patients are necessary for both patient triage and resource prioritisation. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for COVID-19. However, at present, there is no consensus on the best diagnostic approach to predict outcomes in infected patients. Moreover, it is not clear whether such tools would apply to other potentially pandemic pathogens and therefore of use as stockpile for future pandemic preparedness.MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort observational study to investigate the biology and the prognostic role of interferon alpha-inducible protein 27 (IFI27) in COVID-19 patients.ResultsWe show that IFI27 is expressed in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients and elevated IFI27 expression in the lower respiratory tract is associated with the presence of a high viral load. We further demonstrate that the systemic host response, as measured by blood IFI27 expression, is associated with COVID-19 infection. For clinical outcome prediction (e.g., respiratory failure), IFI27 expression displays a high sensitivity (0.95) and specificity (0.83), outperforming other known predictors of COVID-19 outcomes. Furthermore, IFI27 is upregulated in the blood of infected patients in response to other respiratory viruses. For example, in the pandemic H1N1/09 influenza virus infection, IFI27-like genes were highly upregulated in the blood samples of severely infected patients.ConclusionThese data suggest that prognostic biomarkers targeting the family of IFI27 genes could potentially supplement conventional diagnostic tools in future virus pandemics, independent of whether such pandemics are caused by a coronavirus, an influenza virus or another as yet-to-be discovered respiratory virus.

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BackgroundRobust biomarkers that predict disease outcomes amongst COVID-19 patients are necessary for both patient triage and resource prioritisation. Numerous candidate biomarkers have been proposed for COVID-19. However, at present, there is no consensus on the best diagnostic approach to predict outcomes in infected patients. Moreover, it is not clear whether such tools would apply to other potentially pandemic pathogens and therefore of use as stockpile for future pandemic preparedness.MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort observational study to investigate the biology and the prognostic role of interferon alpha-inducible protein 27 (IFI27) in COVID-19 patients.FindingsWe show that IFI27 is expressed in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients and elevated IFI27 expression is associated with the presence of a high viral load. We further demonstrate that systemic host response, as measured by blood IFI27 expression, is associated with COVID-19 severity. For clinical outcome prediction (e.g. respiratory failure), IFI27 expression displays a high positive (0.83) and negative (0.95) predictive value, outperforming all other known predictors of COVID-19 severity. Furthermore, IFI27 is upregulated in the blood of infected patients in response to other respiratory viruses. For example, in the pandemic H1N1/09 swine influenza virus infection, IFI27-like genes were highly upregulated in the blood samples of severely infected patients.InterpretationThese data suggest that prognostic biomarkers targeting the family of IFI27 genes could potentially supplement conventional diagnostic tools in future virus pandemics, independent of whether such pandemics are caused by a coronavirus, an influenza virus or another as yet-to-be discovered respiratory virus.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched the scientific literature using PubMed to identify studies that used the IFI27 biomarker to predict outcomes in COVID-19 patients. We used the search terms “IFI27”, “COVID-19, “gene expression” and “outcome prediction”. We did not identify any study that investigated the role of IFI27 biomarker in outcome prediction. Although ten studies were identified using the general terms of “gene expression” and “COVID-19”, IFI27 was only mentioned in passing as one of the identified genes. All these studies addressed the broader question of the host response to COVID-19; none focused solely on using IFI27 to improve the risk stratification of infected patients in a pandemic.Added value of this studyHere, we present the findings of a multi-cohort study of the IFI27 biomarker in COVID-19 patients. Our findings show that the host response, as reflected by blood IFI27 gene expression, accurately predicts COVID-19 disease progression (positive and negative predictive values; 0.83 and 0.95, respectively), outperforming age, comorbidity, C-reactive protein and all other known risk factors. The strong association of IFI27 with disease severity occurs not only in SARS-CoV-2 infection, but also in other respiratory viruses with pandemic potential, such as the influenza virus. These findings suggest that host response biomarkers, such as IFI27, could help identify high-risk COVID-19 patients - those who are more likely to develop infection complications - and therefore may help improve patient triage in a pandemic.Implications of all the available evidenceThis is the first systemic study of the clinical role of IFI27 in the current COVID-19 pandemic and its possible future application in other respiratory virus pandemics. The findings not only could help improve the current management of COVID-19 patients but may also improve future pandemic preparedness.

Cystic fibrosis (CF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are characterised by increasingly frequent acute pulmonary exacerbations that reduce life quality and length. Human airways are home to a rich polymicrobial environment, including members of the obligately anaerobic genus, Prevotella. Despite their commonness, surprisingly little is known about the prevalence, role, genomic diversity, and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) potential of Prevotella species/strains in healthy and diseased airways. Here, we used comparative genomics to develop a real-time PCR assay to permit rapid Prevotella spp. quantification from cultures and clinical specimens. Assay specificity was validated across a panel of Prevotella and non-Prevotella species, followed by PCR screening of CF and COPD respiratory-derived cultures. Next, 35 PCR-positive isolates were subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Of eight identified species, P. histicola, P. melaninogenica, P. nanceiensis, P. salivae and P. denticola overlapped between participant cohorts. Phylogenomic analysis revealed considerable interhost but limited intrahost diversity, indicating patient-specific lineages rather than patient-to-patient transmission. Correlation of phenotypic AMR profiles with AMR gene presence identified excellent correlation between tetQ presence and decreased doxycycline susceptibility, and ermF presence and decreased azithromycin susceptibility and clindamycin resistance. AMR rates were higher in the CF isolates, reflecting greater antibiotic use in this cohort. All tested Prevotella isolates were tobramycin-resistant, providing a potential selection method to improve Prevotella culture retrieval rates. Our addition of 35 airway-derived Prevotella genomes to public databases will enhance ongoing efforts to unravel the role of this diverse and enigmatic genus in both chronic respiratory diseases and healthy lungs.

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