Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4-28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7-13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic.

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Summary Latent replication-competent HIV-1 persists in individuals on long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART). We developed the Full-Length Individual Proviral Sequencing (FLIPS) assay to determine the distribution of latent replication-competent HIV-1 within memory CD4+ T cell subsets in six individuals on long-term ART. FLIPS is an efficient, high-throughput assay that amplifies and sequences near full-length (~9 kb) HIV-1 proviral genomes and determines potential replication-competency through genetic characterization. FLIPS provides a genome-scale perspective which addresses the limitations of other methods that also genetically characterize the latent reservoir. Using FLIPS, we identified 5% proviruses as intact and potentially replication-competent. Intact proviruses were unequally distributed between T cell subsets, with effector memory cells containing the largest proportion of genetically intact HIV-1 proviruses. We identified multiple identical intact proviruses suggesting a role for cellular proliferation in the maintenance of the latent HIV-1 reservoir.

The durability of infection-induced SARS-CoV-2 immunity has major implications for reinfection and vaccine development. Here, we show a comprehensive profile of antibody, B cell and T cell dynamics over time in a cohort of patients who have recovered from mild-moderate COVID-19. Binding and neutralising antibody responses, together with individual serum clonotypes, decay over the first 4 months post-infection. A similar decline in Spike-specific CD4+ and circulating T follicular helper frequencies occurs. By contrast, S-specific IgG+ memory B cells consistently accumulate over time, eventually comprising a substantial fraction of circulating the memory B cell pool. Modelling of the concomitant immune kinetics predicts maintenance of serological neutralising activity above a titre of 1:40 in 50% of convalescent participants to 74 days, although there is probably additive protection from B cell and T cell immunity. This study indicates that SARS-CoV-2 immunity after infection might be transiently protective at a population level. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines might require greater immunogenicity and durability than natural infection to drive long-term protection.

Naturally SIV-infected sooty mangabeys (SMs) do not progress to AIDS despite high-level virus replication. We previously showed that the fraction of CD4+CCR5+ T-cells is lower in SMs compared to humans and macaques. Here we found that, after in vitro stimulation, SM CD4+ T-cells fail to up-regulate CCR5, and that this phenomenon is more pronounced in CD4+ central-memory T-cells (TCM). CD4+ T-cell activation was similarly uncoupled from CCR5 expression in SMs in vivo during (i) acute SIV infection and (ii) following antibody-mediated CD4+ T-cell depletion. Remarkably, CD4+ TCM of SMs that express low levels of CCR5 demonstrated reduced susceptibility to SIV infection both in vivo and in vitro when compared to CD4+ TCM of RMs. These data suggest that low CCR5 expression on SM CD4+ T-cells favors the preservation of CD4+ T-cell homeostasis and promotes an AIDS-free status by protecting CD4+ TCM from direct virus infection.

Highlights d HIV-1 sequences sampled from different reservoirs were compared to rebound viruses in 11 individuals d Rebound viruses can originate from various cellular and anatomical compartments d Cellular proliferation is an important driver of HIV persistence d Cure strategies should take into account the lack of a prominent HIV rebound origin

BACKGROUND. Understanding HIV dynamics across the human body is important for cure efforts. This goal has been hampered by technical difficulties and the challenge of obtaining fresh tissues. METHODS. This observational study evaluated 6 individuals with HIV (n = 4 with viral suppression using antiretroviral [ART] therapy; n = 2 with rebound viremia after stopping ART), who provided serial blood samples before death and their bodies for rapid autopsy. HIV reservoirs were characterized by digital droplet PCR, single-genome amplification, and sequencing of fulllength (FL) envelope HIV. Phylogeographic methods were used to reconstruct HIV spread, and generalized linear models were tested for viral factors associated with dispersal. RESULTS. Across participants, HIV DNA levels varied from approximately 0 to 659 copies/10 6 cells (IQR: 22.9-126.5). A total of 605 intact FL env sequences were recovered in antemortem blood cells and across 28 tissues (IQR: 5-9). Sequence analysis showed (a) the emergence of large, identical, intact HIV RNA populations in blood after cessation of therapy, which repopulated tissues throughout the body; (b) that multiple sites acted as hubs for HIV dissemination but that blood and lymphoid tissues were the main source; (c) that viral exchanges occurred within brain areas and across the blood-brain barrier; and (d) that migration was associated with low HIV divergence between sites and greater diversity at the recipient site. CONCLUSION. HIV reservoirs persisted in all deep tissues, and blood was the main source of dispersal. This may explain why eliminating HIV susceptibility in circulating T cells via bone marrow transplants allowed some individuals with HIV to experience therapy-free remission, even though deeper tissue reservoirs were not targeted. TRIAL REGISTRATION. Not applicable.

Both the extent of immune depletion prior to ART and IL-7Rα haplotype 2 are important determinants of time to CD4(+) T cell recovery to counts of >500 cells/μL.