High-resolution 2D seismic data reveal the character and distribution of up to four stacked bottom simulating reflectors (BSR) within the channel-levee systems of the Danube deep-sea fan. The theoretical base of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) calculated from regional geothermal gradients and salinity data is in agreement with the shallowest BSR. For the deeper BSRs, BSR formation due to overpressure compartments can be excluded because the necessary gas column would exceed the vertical distance between two overlying BSRs. We show instead that the deeper BSRs are likely paleo BSRs caused by a change in pressure and temperature conditions during different limnic phases of the Black Sea. This is supported by the observation that the BSRs correspond to paleo seafloor horizons located in a layer between a buried channel-levee system and the levee deposits of the Danube channel. The good match of the observed BSRs and the BSRs predicted from deposition of these sediment layers indicates that the multiple BSRs reflect stages of stable sealevel lowstands possibly during glacial times. The observation of sharp BSRs several 10,000 of years but possibly up to 300,000 years after they have left the GHSZ demonstrates that either hydrate dissociation does not take place within this time frame or that only small amounts of gas are released that can be transported by diffusion. The gas underneath the previous GHSZ does not start to migrate for several thousands of years.

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Potential impacts of gas hydrate exploitation on slope stability in the Danube deep-sea fan, AbstractMethane production from gas hydrate reservoirs is only economically viable for hydrate reservoirs in permeable sediments. The most suitable known prospect in European waters is the paleo Danube deep-sea fan in the Bulgarian exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea where a gas hydrate reservoir is found 60 m below the seafloor in water depths of about 1500 m. To investigate the hazards associated with gas production-induced slope failures we carried out a slope stability analysis for this area. Screening of the area based on multibeam bathymetry data shows that the area is overall stable with some critical slopes at the inner levees of the paleo channels. Hydrate production using the depressurization method will increase the effective stresses in the reservoir beyond pre-consolidation stress, which results in sediment compaction and seafloor subsidence. The modeling results show that subsidence would locally be in the order of up to 0.4 m, but it remains confined to the immediate vicinity above the production site. Our simulations show that the Factor of Safety against slope failure (1.27) is not affected by the production process, and it is more likely that a landslide is triggered by an earthquake than by production itself. If a landslide were to happen, the mobilized sediments on the most likely failure plane could generate a landslide that would hit the production site with velocities of up to 10 m s -1 . This case study shows that even in the case of production from very shallow gas hydrate reservoirs the threat of naturally occurring slope failures may be greater than that of hydrate production itself and has to be considered carefully in hazard assessments.