Background Data of critically ill COVID-19 patients are being evaluated worldwide, not only to understand the various aspects of the disease and to refine treatment strategies but also to improve clinical decision-making. For clinical decision-making in particular, prognostic factors of a lethal course of the disease would be highly relevant. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed the first 59 adult critically ill Covid-19 patients treated in one of the intensive care units of the University Medical Center Regensburg, Germany. Using uni- and multivariable regression models, we extracted a set of parameters that allowed for prognosing in-hospital mortality. Results Within the cohort, 19 patients died (mortality 32.2%). Blood pH value, mean arterial pressure, base excess, troponin, and procalcitonin were identified as highly significant prognostic factors of in-hospital mortality. However, no significant differences were found for other parameters expected to be relevant prognostic factors, like low arterial partial pressure of oxygen or high lactate levels. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, the pH value and the mean arterial pressure turned out to be the most influential prognostic factors for a lethal course.

Background: Data of critically ill COVID-19 patients are being evaluated worldwide, not only to understand the various aspects of this disease and to refine treatment strategies but also to improve clinical decision-making. For the last aspect in particular, predictors of a lethal course of disease would be highly relevant.Methods:In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed the first 59 adult critically ill Covid-19 patients treated in one of the intensive care units of the University Medical Center Regensburg, Germany. Using uni- and multivariable regression models, we extracted a set of parameters that allowed predictions of in-hospital mortality.Results:Blood pH value, mean arterial pressure, base excess, troponin, and procalcitonin were identified as highly significant predictors (p < 0.001) of in-hospital mortality. In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, the pH value and the mean arterial pressure turned out to be the most influential predictors and thus predisposing factors for a lethal course.Conclusions:We developed a formula that enables the easy calculation of the probability of a fatal outcome in COVID-19 intensive care patients. Currently a follow-up study with a larger group of patients is in progress to re-evaluate the established predictors.