Australia's 20% Renewable Energy Target (RET) was designed and implemented against a backdrop of several decades of continuous growth in electricity demand. Since the introduction of the policy in 2009 electricity demand has declined continuously. In this article, we analyse how Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) has responded to falling demand and significant additional installed capacity as a result of climate change-related policies. We conclude that energy-only market design, barriers to exit for incumbent plant and time inconsistency of policy has resulted in investment in new renewable energy projects becoming largely intractable. In our opinion, changing the RET fixed GWh target will not alter this fact. To overcome barriers to exit, we examine three options for complementary public policy in the short-term: direct government intervention; a market-based solution; or regulation. In the long-term, a redesign of the energy-only NEM market seems inevitable.
In 2001, Australia introduced legislation requiring investment in new renewable electricity generating capacity. The legislation was significantly expanded in 2009 to give effect to a 20% Renewable Energy Target (RET). Importantly, the policy was introduced with bipartisan support and is consistent with global policy trends. In this article, we examine the history of the policy and establish that the 'stop/start' nature of renewable policy development has resulted in investors withholding new capital until greater certainty is provided. We utilise the methodology from Simshauser and Nelson (2012) to examine whether capital market efficiency losses would occur under certain policy scenarios. The results show that electricity costs would increase by between $51 million and $119 million if the large-scale RET is abandoned even after accounting for avoided renewable costs. Our conclusions are clear: we find that policymakers should be guided by a high level public policy principle in relation to large-scale renewable energy policy: constant review is not reform.
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