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Background: To assess whether early health economic modeling helps to distinguish those healthcare innovations that are potentially cost-effective from those that are not potentially cost-effective. We will also study what information is retrieved from the health economic models to inform further development, research and implementation decisions. Methods: We performed secondary analyses on an existing database of 32 health economic modeling assessments of 30 innovations, performed by our group. First, we explored whether the assessments could distinguish innovations with potential cost-effectiveness from innovations without potential cost-effectiveness. Second, we explored which recommendations were made regarding development, implementation and further research of the innovation. Results: Of the 30 innovations, 1 (3%) was an idea that was not yet being developed and 14 (47%) were under development. Eight (27%) innovations had finished development, and another 7 (23%) innovations were on the market. Although all assessments showed that the innovation had the potential to become cost-effective, due to improved patient outcomes, cost savings or both, differences were found in the magnitude of the potential benefits, and the likelihood of reaching this potential. The assessments informed how the innovation could be further developed or positioned to maximize its cost-effectiveness, and informed further research. Conclusion: The early health economic assessments provided insight in the potential cost-effectiveness of an innovation in its intended context, and the associated uncertainty. None of the assessments resulted in a firm ‘no-go’ recommendation, but recommendations could be provided on further research and development in order to maximize value for money.

Based on the currently available evidence, the reduction of over diagnosis and overtreatment due to the use of the SelectMDx test in men with PSA levels of >3 ng/mL may lead to a reduction in total costs per patient and a gain in QALYs.

Background Low specificity of prostate-specific antigen results in a considerable number of unnecessary prostate biopsies in current practice. SelectMDx® predicts significant prostate cancer upon biopsy and is used to reduce the number of unnecessary initial prostate biopsies. Furthermore, potential overtreatment of insignificant prostate cancer can be reduced. Besides the diagnostic accuracy of the test, also the context in a specific country determines the potential health benefit and costeffectiveness. Therefore, the health benefit and cost-effectiveness of SelectMDx were assessed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Subject and methods A decision model was used to compare the current standard of care in which men undergo initial prostate biopsy in case of an elevated prostate-specific antigen, to a strategy in which SelectMDx was used to select men for biopsy. Model inputs most relevant to each of the four countries were obtained. With use of the model long-term qualityadjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs were calculated for both strategies. Results In all four countries, the SelectMDx resulted in QALY gain and cost savings compared with the current standard of care. In France, SelectMDx resulted in 0.022 QALYs gained and cost savings of €1217 per patient. For Germany, the model showed a QALY gain of 0.016 and a cost saving of €442. In Italy, the QALY gain and cost savings were 0.031 and €762. In Spain 0.020 QALYs were gained and €250 costs were saved. Conclusions The results of the model showed that with SelectMDx, QALYs could be gained while saving healthcare costs in the initial diagnosis of prostate cancer. The significant presence of overtreatment in the current standard of care in all four countries was the main factor that resulted in the beneficial outcomes with SelectMDx.