Abstract. The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 84 C. Rumbaur et al.: Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. ...

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Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change impact, climate trend, long-term yield development, phenology trend, R 2 for mixed effect models, soil yield potential, weather extremes, Winter wheat

The extremely arid Aksu-Tarim

Key message Breeding progress of resistance to fungal wheat diseases and impact of disease severity on yield reduction in long-term variety trials under natural infection were estimated by mixed linear regression models. Abstract This study aimed at quantifying breeding progress achieved in resistance breeding towards varieties with higher yield and lower susceptibility for 6 major diseases, as well as estimating decreasing yields and increasing disease susceptibility of varieties due to ageing effects during the period 1983–2019. A further aim was the prediction of disease-related yield reductions during 2005–2019 by mixed linear regression models using disease severity scores as covariates. For yield and all diseases, overall progress of the fully treated intensity (I2) was considerably higher than for the intensity without fungicides and growth regulators (I1). The disease severity level was considerably reduced during the study period for mildew (MLD), tan spot (DTR) and Septoria nodorum blotch (ear) (SNB) and to a lesser extent for brown (leaf) rust (BNR) and Septoria tritici blotch (STB), however, not for yellow/stripe rust (YLR). Ageing effects increased susceptibility of varieties strongly for BNR and MLD, but were comparatively weak for SNB and DTR. Considerable yield reductions under high disease severity were predicted for STB (−6.6%), BNR (−6.5%) and yellow rust (YLR, −5.8%), but lower reductions for the other diseases. The reduction for resistant vs. highly susceptible varieties under high severity conditions was about halved for BNR and YLR, providing evidence of resistance breeding progress. The empirical evidence on the functional relations between disease severity, variety susceptibility and yield reductions based on a large-scale multiple-disease field trial data set in German winter wheat is an important contribution to the ongoing discussion on fungicide use and its environmental impact.

Abstract:Intercropping has a strong potential to counteract the severe degradation of arable land in the North China Plain (NCP). However, a rapid decline of intercropping can be observed in the last decades. The present paper investigates the reason for this development and suggests solutions on how to adjust intercropping systems to fit modern agriculture. Firstly, the developments of socioeconomic conditions for farming were assessed, analyzing the statistical yearbooks of the seven provinces of the North China Plain. Secondly, a survey was conducted in the study region to understand the current state and future of intercropping systems. The investigations revealed that, due to limited off-farm income possibilities in the past, intercropping has been a viable solution to intensively use the limited land resources per farm household. However, a shift of rural laborers into other sectors has recently been observed. Thus, decreasing importance of income from agriculture and increasing labor costs are heralding the slow death of labor-intensive intercropping systems. Two possible solutions are discussed in the paper. Either the traditional row-intercropping systems can be transformed into stripintercropping systems that can be mechanized using existing machinery; or, new machinery has to be developed that enables the mechanization of the traditional row-intercropping systems. OPEN ACCESS

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The search for approaches to a holistic sustainable agriculture requires the development of new cropping systems that provide additional ecosystem services beyond biomass supply for food, feed, material, and energy use. The reduction of chemical synthetic plant protection products is a key instrument to protect vulnerable natural resources such as groundwater and biodiversity. Together with an optimal use of mineral fertilizer, agroecological practices, and precision agriculture technologies, a complete elimination of chemical synthetic plant protection in mineral-ecological cropping systems (MECSs) may not only improve the environmental performance of agroecosystems, but also ensure their yield performance. Therefore, the development of MECSs aims to improve the overall ecosystem services of agricultural landscapes by (i) improving the provision of regulating ecosystem services compared to conventional cropping systems and (ii) improving the supply of provisioning ecosystem services compared to organic cropping systems. In the present review, all relevant research levels and aspects of this new farming concept are outlined and discussed based on a comprehensive literature review and the ongoing research project “Agriculture 4.0 without Chemical-Synthetic Plant Protection”.