SUMMARY Introduction Heterosexual HIV-1 transmission is an inefficient process with rates reported at <1% per unprotected sexual exposure. When transmission occurs, systemic infection is typically established by a single genetic variant, taken from the swarm of genetically distinct viruses circulating in the donor. Whether that founder virus represents a chance event or was systematically favored is unclear. Our work has tested a central hypothesis that founder virus selection is biased toward certain genetic characteristics. Rationale If HIV-1 transmission involves selection for viruses with certain favorable characteristics, then such advantages should emerge as statistical biases when viewed across many viral loci in many transmitting partners. We therefore identified 137 Zambian heterosexual transmission pairs, for whom plasma samples were available for both the donor and recipient partner soon after transmission, and compared the viral sequences obtained from each partner to identify features that predicted whether the majority amino acid observed at any particular position in the donor was transmitted. We focused attention on two features: viral genetic characteristics that correlate with viral fitness, and clinical factors that influence transmission. Statistical modeling indicates that the former will be favored for transmission, while the latter will nullify this relative advantage. Results We observed a highly significant selection bias that favors the transmission of amino acids associated with increased fitness. These features included the frequency of the amino acid in the study cohort, the relative advantage of the amino acid with respect to the stability of the protein, and features related to immune escape and compensation. This selection bias was reduced in couples with high risk of transmission. In particular, significantly less selection bias was observed in women and in men with genital inflammation, compared to healthy men, suggesting a more permissive environment in the female than male genital tract. Consistent with this observation, viruses transmitted to women were characterized by lower predicted fitness than those in men. The presence of amino acids favored during transmission predicted which individual virus within a donor was transmitted to their partner, while chronically infected individuals with viral populations characterized by a predominance of these amino acids were more likely to transmit to their partners. Conclusion These data highlight the clear selection biases that benefit fitter viruses during transmission in the context of a stochastic process. That such biases exist, and are tempered by certain risk factors, suggests that transmission is frequently characterized by many abortive transmission events in which some target cells are nonproductively infected. Moreover, for efficient transmission, some changes that favored survival in the transmitting partner are frequently discarded, resulting in overall slower evolution of HIV-1 in the population. Paradoxically, by...

e Cytotoxic-T-lymphocyte (CTL) escape mutations undermine the durability of effective human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-specific CD8؉ T cell responses. The rate of CTL escape from a given response is largely governed by the net of all escape-associated viral fitness costs and benefits. The observation that CTL escape mutations can carry an associated fitness cost in terms of reduced virus replication capacity (RC) suggests a fitness cost-benefit trade-off that could delay CTL escape and thereby prolong CD8 response effectiveness. However, our understanding of this potential fitness trade-off is limited by the small number of CTL escape mutations for which a fitness cost has been quantified. Here, we quantified the fitness cost of the 29 most common HIV-1B Gag CTL escape mutations using an in vitro RC assay. The majority (20/29) of mutations reduced RC by more than the benchmark M184V antiretroviral drug resistance mutation, with impacts ranging from 8% to 69%. Notably, the reduction in RC was significantly greater for CTL escape mutations associated with protective HLA class I alleles than for those associated with nonprotective alleles. To speed the future evaluation of CTL escape costs, we also developed an in silico approach for inferring the relative impact of a mutation on RC based on its computed impact on protein thermodynamic stability. These data illustrate that the magnitude of CTL escape-associated fitness costs, and thus the barrier to CTL escape, varies widely even in the conserved Gag proteins and suggest that differential escape costs may contribute to the relative efficacy of CD8 responses.